January 27, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 271150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY WITH SOME SNOW. IN ITS WAKE
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MIDWEEK…WITH
BRISK WINDS AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 6 AM DOUBLE BARREL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER E END
OF LK ONTARIO AND NE OF GEORGIAN BAY WITH CDFNT HAVING JUST PUSHED
THRU KROC. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS FURTHER WITH THIS UPDATE AS A FEW
LOCATIONS ACRS THE FA ARE ABOVE FREEZING INCLUDING KDDH.

STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE FA TODAY AS IT MOVES
UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BE CROSSING THE FA THIS MORNING. EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION
TO SEE MEASURABLE SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS 2 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
OCCUR MAINLY LATE THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING RAPIDLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACRS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS KDDH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY
WHICH RUNS THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…LAKE GEORGE REGION…MOHAWK
VALLEY…SCHOHARIE VALLEY…EASTERN CATSKILLS…CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES WHICH RUNS FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ESPECIALLY WITH PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO NOW FROZEN OVER. WIND
DIRECTION FAVORS THE NORTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE OF HAVING ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
6 TO 12 INCHES. HAVE LEFT HAMILTON COUNTY OUT OF ANY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW HEADLINES DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE NATURE OF THE INLAND EXTENT
OF THE SNOW BAND. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS AND
RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WHICH IS THE REASON THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO WHICH COUPLED WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS 29 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH MANY AREAS
HAVING VALUES AS LOW AS 15 BELOW ZERO.

ON TUESDAY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WITH MUCH OF THE FA DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL START TO WANE TUESDAY NIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW
GETS REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY BUT
CONTINUED COLD WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
EARLY ON…BUT A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE READINGS FOR VERY
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEB. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES BROADER
AND LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS TAPPING SOME GULF
MOISTURE AND MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION…WHICH COULD BE A SET UP FOR SOME OVER RUNNING
PCPN…BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STORM
TRACK OF RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THU-THU NIGHT…HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH QUIET WX TO OPEN THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE WAVE WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS S-CNTRL ONTARIO. H850 TEMPS RISE TO -6C TO -9C
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH A S/SW FLOW OF MILDER
AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MAX TEMPS WITH SOME
SUNSHINE DUE TO THE RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE MID AND
U20S IN THE VALLEYS /PERHAPS A FEW 30F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/ AND LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY…ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS…AND SRN
GREENS.

FRI-FRI NIGHT…THE CLIPPER PASSES WELL NORTH OF UPSTATE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND ACROSS CNTRL QUEBEC…AND NEAR JAMES BAY. THE COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. SOME LAKE MOISTURE MAYBE UTILIZED OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NRN MOST ZONES…WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES SOUTH OF THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION. THE COLD
ADVECTION IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO -8C TO -14C. THE LATEST
GEFS SUPPORT THIS TREND OF MORE NORMAL H850 TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGHS IN THE L20S ACROSS THE SRN DACKS TO L30S IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/NW CT…AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY…THE OLD COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION W/SW INTO THE OH VALLEY…AND S-CNTRL PLAINS. THE
ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
OVER RUNNING PCPN FOR PARTS OR MOST OF THE ALY FCST AREA. THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO BE STRONGEST SOUTH
OF THE SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA…WITH SOME MOISTURE OVER
RUNNING THE COLD DOME IN PLACE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.
FAVORED THE WPC/GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN HERE WITH SOME WAVERING ON THE
ECMWF THE LAST FEW RUNS /ESPECIALLY WITH SFC WAVE MOVING WEST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY…WHICH IS MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS/. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE SAT-SAT
NIGHT WITH CHC POPS INCLUDED BOTH PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RIDGE
BACK IN FROM THE N/NW FOR THE BOUNDARY TO DIP SOUTHWARD AGAIN. HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE EAST. HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEYS…AND MID AND
U20S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS…WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
THE WEEKEND FCST IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TREND TO
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM LAKE
ONTARIO ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING…AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO 14Z FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD
WITH CIGS IN THE 3.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KGFL PRIOR TO 14Z WITH MVR CIGS/VSBYS.

BTWN 14Z-18Z…THE SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT SNOW SQUALLS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. THERE MAYBE EVEN A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS. THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH KGFL 14Z-16Z…15-17Z KALB…16Z-18Z
KPOU…AND 15Z-18Z KPSF WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. TEMPO
GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RISE BACK TO VFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LINGERING AFTER 00Z/TUE. THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS
EVENING.

BY DAYBREAK…THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KT…EXCEPT 10-20 KT AT KALB. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING…BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON…AND
INCREASING TO 15-25 KT…WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING THE
30-35 KT RANGE AT TIMES…ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN CONTINUED AT KGFL…KPOU…AND KPSF
PRIOR TO 15Z…AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS…WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KT.

OUTLOOK…
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY…WITH LAKE EFFECT INTO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AND
ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.

WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS RIVER AND LAKE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-043-047-048-051-054-058-061-
063-082-083.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11/NAS
NEAR TERM…11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…WASULA
AVIATION…WASULA
HYDROLOGY…11/SNYDER

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