January 26, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 261721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1220 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
AND MONDAY A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. IN ITS WAKE
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL POUR INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MIDWEEK…WITH
BRISK WINDS AND MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/…
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION…BUT CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS…VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…SO
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

DETAILS ON THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE ADDRESSED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD
BELOW…

THE NEXT CLIPPER IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THE ONE ON
SATURDAY…HAVE CONFINED THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS TO THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING…WITH NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF NOON ON MONDAY. PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLIPPER AND FRONT WILL QUICKLY END IN MOST AREAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON…BUT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OFF
LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN
AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 20 OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…AND THE 20S TO
MID 30S ELSEWHERE…BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP AFTER THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
MONDAY…SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDDAY LEAVING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY…WITH
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE REST OF THE AREA. WITH THE COLD FRONT
TIMED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY…HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY…DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND THE ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.

MDL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT SPREAD BY THU NT.

AT THIS POINT THE LATEST ARCTIC CDFNT HAS DEPARTED AND THE FULL
LATITUDE 500HPA TROF TRAILING A DEPARTING CUT OFF LOW IN N QB
DRAGS ACROSS THE FCA. IN ITS WAKE IT ANOTHER CORE OF FRIGID AIR MOVES
INTO THE GRTLKS AND NORTHEAST REGIONS. MOST GUID HAS 480-500DM
THICKNESS AIR MASS OVR RGN…-20C TO -28C AT 850HPA

ONCE AGAIN MDLS SUG A TRIPLE LK EFFECT BAND INTO W MHWK VLY MON NT
AND INTO TUG HILL/W ADRNDKS REST OF PERIOD. AWAY FROM THIS AREA
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SFC PRES GRAD BTWN N QUEBEC 980 LOW AND 1036 SFC HIGH IN OHIO/MISS
VLY. MUCH OF TUES WILL SEE 10-15HPA SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
NYS…WITH 10 HPA WED. WITH WINDS 10-20MPH AND TEMPS -10F TO +10F
FOR MINS AND IN THE TEENS FOR MAXES WIND CHILL ISSUES WILL PERSIST
TUES/WED.

OTHER THAN LK EFFECT…CLOUDS WILL DIM WITH PS-MS CONDS S AND
VRBL CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN FROM TRRN ENHANCEMENT NORTH AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WVS CONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE RGN AT 500HPA.

BY WED NT/THU THE 500HPA TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA HAS RELAXED WITH THE FLOW TURNING ZONAL TO WNW. SFC HIGH
HAS SHIFTED TO EASTERN SEABOARD…LK EFFECT DYNAMICS SHUT DOWN.
RESULT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE SUN…AND MODERATING TEMPS THUR
AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY CHILLY START.

LATE THU A CDFNT WILL APPROACH FM NW WITH SOME INCR IN CLOUDS LATE
IN THE DAY AS PER THE GFS…BOTH ECMWF AND GEM HOLD OFF TO EFP FOR
THIS EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
MDLS SUITE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT TILL THE END OF PERIOD.
500HPA FLOW BCMS MAINLY ZONAL AND CONDS MODERATE. WX SYSTEMS ARE
MOVING QUICKLY FM W TO E. THURSDAY NIGHT A RATHER HEALTHY TROF/CUT
OFF MOVES ACROSS ONT AND QB…DRAGGING A CDFNT THROUGH FCA WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF -SNSH. HWVR AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
COLDER THAN RETURN FLOW OF DEPARTING AIR MASS. FRI AND FRI NT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER REGION WITH SOME LK EFFECT RESPONSE INTO W
ADRNDKS. ECMWF AND HPC KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN CONTROL INTO SAT.

SAT OR SUN A DIFFERENT KIND OF SYSTEM APPROACHES. GFS BRINGS IT
FURTHER N INTO FCA SAT. ECMWF AND HPC KEEP THE BULK OF IT TO OUR
SOUTH AND MUCH WEAKER FOR SUN. ITS A SHRT WV AND SFC LOW FM OH
VLY MVNG NE TO MAINE OR MID ATLC COAST…WITH MORE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE…IT WILL BRING A MODERATE AMOUNT OF PCPN TO AREAS IT
AFFECTS…AND BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR. THE OTHER MODELS BRING
SOME CLOUDS…-SHSN AND KEEP IT SOUTH.

AT THIS POINT A WEEK AWAY WILL LEAN TWRD HPC/ECMWF SOLTN. THE MAIN
STORY DURING THE EFP WILL BE FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
AND NO BIG STORMS OR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF I90.
THESE MVFR THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT ONCE
INITIATED AND THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CIGS. THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE
FOR AN ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL TO BE QUICKLY REPLACED WITH
SHIFTING WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

OUTLOOK…

MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY…WITH LAKE
EFFECT INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE MUCH OF
THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.

WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS RIVER AND LAKE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM…GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM…SNYDER
LONG TERM…SNYDER
AVIATION…BGM
HYDROLOGY…SNYDER

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