January 22, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 222220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
510 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND A PERHAPS A FEW VALLEY FLURRIES AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 500 PM EST…PER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION INCLUDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
MOST OF THE WIND CHILL ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING…AND
MAYBE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WIND COULD REACH UP OVER 5 MPH.
OVERNIGHT…MANY AREAS MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE LIGHT WIND UNDER 5 MPH.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS AS WELL.

SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO INDICATE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS AROUND OUR
AREA…AND IT LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS.

SOME CLOUDS…AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT…ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF ACTUAL LOWS WILL BE 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…AND AROUND ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WHILE IT LOOKS RATHER IMPRESSIVE ON THE UPPER
CHARTS…THERE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH…AND THE ASCENT
LOOKS WEAK.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VALLEY FLURRIES…AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD NEGLIGIBLE.

THAT SYSTEM MOVES ON BY…AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THEN A MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE MOVE MOISTURE AND
FORCING TO WORK WITH AND LOOKS TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION.
VALLEY AREAS LOOK TO HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS…POSSIBLY MODERATE
OVER SOME OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME WIND
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER…THE WIND WILL LIKELY NEGATE
ANY MODIFICATION OF THE COLD.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE ONLY A FEW POINTS HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD…ZERO TO 10 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VALLEY AREAS
NORTH OF ALBANY.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND ZERO OR A LITTLE LOWER
ALBANY SOUTHWARD…25 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…AND 10
BELOW TO ZERO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AREAS.

ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES MIGHT HAVE TO BE ISSUED THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY…HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT…WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE…TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LOOK FOR LOWS TO HOLD AROUND 10 FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD…5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE NORTH OF ALBANY.

SATURDAY…AS MENTIONED…TEMPERATURES LOOK TO "MODERATE" INTO THE
20S MOST AREAS…PROBABLY JUST FALLING SHORT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER…A STIFF SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL
COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AS WELL AS SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY…LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
10 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY…ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE SNOW THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE TEENS
TO MID 20S WITH STILL SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY…EXPECT EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS AS
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO OUR REGION. ANY LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE NW THIRD OF FA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 20 BELOW ZERO TO NEAR ZERO WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. CLEAR OR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL DOMINATE INTO
THE AFTERNOON…WITH SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS MOVING IN TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY 00Z/THU….AND 5 KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KT TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK…

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHSN LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE
ICE TO REFORM AND THICKEN.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION…WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>040-042-043-047-048-051-058-063-082.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY…IAA/BGM/HWJIV

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