January 21, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 212330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. OTHERWISE…THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS ALONG WITH WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 630 PM EST… IMPRESSIVE FGEN BAND ON RADAR EXTENDED ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NJ- LONG ISLAND-SOUTHERN CT-RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
THIS BAND IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. THE SNOW HAS THUS FAR BEEN RATHER LIGHT AS IT COMPETES
WITH THE DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE A VERY FINE LINE
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WE WILL CUT OFF THE POP/WX SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT…SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CENTRAL TACONICS. DUE TO
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS…WE WILL RETAIN THE POPS/WX INTO SOUTHERN
VT…BERKSHIRES…EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW REMAIN…WITH A WINTER
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. WE DID DROP WESTERN
ULSTER AS LITTLE TO NO REFLECTIVITES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THUS FAR
ALONG WITH METAR OBSERVATIONS FROM KMSV INDICATING LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY NO SNOW.

PER HRRR/RUC13…IMPRESSIVE FGEN BAND WILL LIFT TOWARD SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE AS SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 15-20:1. THIS BAND
OF SNOW SHOULD PIVOT AND BE EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT /09Z
TIME FRAME/ WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

REMAINDER OF THE REGION…MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. IN ADDITION…SURFACE GRADIENT
TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS COASTAL STORM DEEPENS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TAKING OUR ALREADY COLD ARCTIC TEMPS DOWN INTO WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVELS. IN CLOSE COORDINATION WITH
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES…WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH
WARNINGS REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE DACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH CLR-PTCLR SKIES WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER…NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE…TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10F AS
THOSE H850 TEMPS HOVER AROUND -20C. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN KEEPING WIND CHILLS DANGEROUSLY LOW AS THOSE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEED THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ACTIVITY TO COMMENCE. WIND
TRAJECTORIES BETWEEN 300-320 DEGREES WOULD SUGGEST SOME OF THESE
BANDS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILL
REGION. HOWEVER…INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 3K FEET
SO NOT EXPECTING TOO ROBUST OF LAKE BANDS BUT WE WILL HAVE 20-30%
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY…MOISTURE PROFILES AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CATSKILLS…MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. OVERALL OMEGA FIELDS ARE
RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE SO EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AS WELL AS SEVERAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FOR FRIDAY…HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING INTO THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM TEENS TO LOW TO MID 20S.
THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW AREAS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THAT STILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT…A CLIPPER TYPE WILL BE APPROACHING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OUR REGION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY WELL ABOVE THOSE ON FRIDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

SUNDAY…LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY…ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE SNOW THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE DELMARVA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT…EVENTUALLY PASSING WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION…LIKELY ONLY IMPACTING KPOU.

IT WILL REMAIN DRY AT KGFL/KALB…DRY AIR WILL KEEP SNOW SOUTH OF
THESE AREAS. FOR KPOU SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS.
MOST PERSISTENT IFR AT KPOU WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z
WEDNESDAY…AS THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AROUND
10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK…

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

AN ARCTIC AIR IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND IT WILL
REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER AND
LAKE ICE TO REFORM AND THICKEN.

A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO AREAS MAINLY TO
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT…ESPECIALLY
AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVER
THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
042-047-058-063-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ061-
064>066.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039>041-
043-048>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-
025.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…BGM
NEAR TERM…BGM/11
SHORT TERM…BGM
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…11/JPV
HYDROLOGY…IAA/BGM

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