000
FXUS61 KALY 170207
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
907 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER…CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW…AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER STORM
APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. ADDITIONAL FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK…EACH BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS…WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVING NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 900 PM EST…AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH AND COLD
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME LINGERING STRATUS REMAINS OVER OUR
AREA…BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS…AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA. AS A RESULT…SKIES OVER OUR
AREA SHOULD GO FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
TONIGHT…AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES UP INTO OUR AREA FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES…LIGHT WINDS…AND FRESH SNOW ON THE
GROUND…IT WILL ALLOW FOR A COLDER NIGHT THAN RECENT NIGHTS
/ALTHOUGH NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S…WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY…THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY…MAINLY BY THE AFTN HOURS. THE
SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS.
ELSEWHERE…DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE MOST SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM…IT WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY…WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
FOR VALLEY AREAS /UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND MOVE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHILE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST COAST. ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE A QUICK MOVING BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW FOR LATE FRI
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AFTN. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD…WITH A GENERAL
1-4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
3-6 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS…HELDERBERGS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS OF VT….DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK…QPF…AND
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 20S /SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS/. MAX TEMPS ON SAT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT NIGHT. AS A RESULT…SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT…ESP OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS…AND
THEN A RETURN TO COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING VERY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT…A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A REINFORCING COLD SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT…AFTER WHICH
TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS WILL WIN OUT OVER SUNSHINE…AT LEAST UNTIL
THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD WHEN SERIOUS DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
GETS UNDERWAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY…WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS…TO SLIGHTLY
MILDER READINGS OF AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER ON TUESDAY…AND
ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER ON WEDNESDAY…WITH HIGHS STEADYING
OFF ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
SUNDAY NIGHT…FROM AROUND ZERO TO THE LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT…FROM
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT…AND FROM
AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS…TO AROUND 10
DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS EVENING TO BETWEEN 2500-5000
FEET…WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
13Z…ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR…AND MAY BE SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT KGFL BETWEEN
09Z-13Z IF IT CAN CLEAR OUT ENOUGH. THERE IS SOME CLEARING TO THE
WEST THAT IS INCHING EAST…BUT MORE CLOUD COVER…ABOVE 3000 FEET
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY/PA WHICH COULD CATCH UP TO THE DEPARTING
LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION CURRENTLY THAT ARE INCHING EAST.
SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE IF OUR CLOUDS
DEPART QUICKER…AND IF THE NEXT SYSTEM ADVANCES QUICKLY OR SLOWLY
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN VARIABLE
AT LESS TAN 6 KT TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK…
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY-MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO
SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED…BUT WITHIN
BANKS…DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND…ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. AS A RESULT…STREAM FLOWS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK…RIVER AND LAKE ICE WILL
BEGIN TO REFORM AND STRENGTHEN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT…
KENX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…11/NAS
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS
EQUIPMENT…11
