January 15, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 151138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND…
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK…AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/…
AS OF 630 AM…SKIES HAVE BECOME MAINLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS…WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE ALSO
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…
AS OF 430 AM…ANOTHER VORT MAX AND SURFACE LOW WAS SEEN ON STLT
LOOPS APPROACHING LAKE HURON AND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS MOIST AS THE ONE THAT
WENT THROUGH ON TUESDAY…SO POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN AROUND 50 PERCENT LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE REGION WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOW CHANCE POPS FORECAST DURING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRY.

SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING…THEN
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…AND IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AS THE FIRST SYSTEM DEPARTS…ANOTHER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY…THEN HEAD OUR WAY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN HAVE ONLY FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY…WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THIS PERIOD…TENDING MORE TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO AROUND 40. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 30S ON SATURDAY…IT SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DUE TO COOLING ALOFT AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE THREAT OF ANY
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT HAS LOWERED SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE MAY BE A WEAK
LAKE RESPONSE IN A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS…OTHERWISE
IT SHOULD BE DRY ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY…A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY RACE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC…DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED…ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

BEHIND THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FINALLY COOL TO
NORMAL DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY…WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
ANY LEFTOVER FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z…WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY…AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL NY…LEAVING JUST CLOUDS. SKIES
EXPECTED TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 4-8 KT…BECOMING NORTHWEST
LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK…

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY…WITH MOST
RAINFALL AMTS BETWEEN 0.25-0.50 INCHES…ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS DID OCCUR. OUTSIDE OF ANY LINGERING ICE EFFECTS…MOST
RIVER LEVELS WILL EXPERIENCED ONLY MINOR RISES FROM THIS RAINFALL.

MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE POSSIBLE WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW…BUT ONCE AGAIN…AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
WORKWEEK…THEN TURN COLDER THIS WEEKEND AT WHICH TIME ICE MAY AGAIN
BEGIN TO FORM ON ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…KL/GJM

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