January 9, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 100240
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR
AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY. THEN…A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES…ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
EVEN MILDER AIR TO REACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND…ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION…SO TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BECOME STEADY SOON. QUITE A BIT OF ENHANCED CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERYIN THE OH VALLEY…BUT UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
QUITE A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIMITING THE PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND OUT THERE. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING WITH THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL…BUT
IT SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT. SO…JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST.

AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH DAYBREAK…GENERALLY EXPECT LESS
THAN ONE INCH FOR MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. DESPITE
RELATIVELY MINOR AMTS…THE VERY COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES FROM
RECENT DAYS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
FRIDAY…THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING…ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING/SHEARING MODE
AS A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS…ALLOWING FOR
OVERALL HEIGHT RISES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CONUS.
NEVERTHELESS…ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IN MOST AREAS. HAVE
INDICATED LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH NOON. TOTAL ACCUMS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH…WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PERHAPS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
REGION. ONCE THE MAIN FORCING PASSES BY THE REGION…VERY LITTLE
ADDITIONAL FORCING IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS…OTHER
THAN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS…WITH PERHAPS SOME
SPOTTY FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS OCCURRING…AND EVEN SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE. HAVE SIDED WITH THE COLDER MAV
MOS…WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S…WARMEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

FRI NT…SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING. THEN…STRONGER LOW/MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP
DEVELOPS…BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR
ACCRETIONS OF ICE…WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME…WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
HWOALY…AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR…THEN WINTER WEATHER/FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT.

SAT-SAT NT…PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF SAT…WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS EAST.
AT THIS TIME…IT APPEARS THAT TOTAL RAINFALL AMTS THROUGH SAT NT
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.75-1.5 INCHES…WITH THE GREATEST AMTS ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…NW CT…AND INTO WESTERN MA AND SE VT.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS COULD OCCUR…ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS…AND IF ANY NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND FEATURE LINGERS
OVER ANY ONE AREA SAT EVENING. IT MAY BECOME QUITE BREEZY/WINDY
LATE SAT…ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS…WHERE SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH COULD OCCUR.
SIMILAR WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH…DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING
CAN OCCUR. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS LATE SAT EVENING FROM
W TO E AS THE FRONT SWEEPS E. AS FOR TEMPS…ON SAT…GENERALLY
WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MAV/MET MOS FOR MAX TEMPS…ESP
FOR AREAS N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER…AS THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION
AS TO HOW MUCH WARM AIR CAN REACH NORTHERN AREAS. SO…EXPECT
MAINLY 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGIONS…WITH 50-55 EXPECTED FURTHER S AND E…ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH…AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES…NW CT…AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD COOL
INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SUNDAY…WINDY BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CLOUDS…AND SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEY AREAS…WITH
MAINLY 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES DUE TO CHANNELED FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY QUICK-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A COOLING TREND.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KICKS OFF THE PERIOD WITH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AREA-WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL WARM
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO MOSTLY THE 40S AREA-WIDE. THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AND BRINGS WITH IT A CHANCE OF MIXED SHOWERS.

A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHERN LAKES UP
THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC…KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…FIRST WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT…THEN WITH THE ENSUING WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE ENHANCED WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION OF
A MIXED NATURE. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR
THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DAY-TO-DAY…WITH HIGHS BY THURSDAY IN
ONLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH
THE LOWS FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO MID 20S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN ALBANY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS 30 DEGREES…WITH
THE LOW AT 14…THE COLDEST MEAN VALUES FOR THE YEAR…WHICH GOES ON
THROUGH MID-JANUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT…BEFORE MVFR CONDITIONS
ACCOMPANYING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY…HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS WELL BEFORE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AFTER 09Z. ACKNOWLEDGING
SOME POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 15Z-
22Z…BUT IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AFTER THAT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT…RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK…

FRI NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA…FZRA…SLEET.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
SAT NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA…RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE ON WAPPINGERS CREEK.

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER THAT…THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE WEEKEND…STARTING SATURDAY MORNING…THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING…WITH THE BULK OF IT EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS…WITH CURRENT
PROJECTIONS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
RAINFALL…AND MILDER TEMPERATURES…SHOULD AT LEAST RESULT IN
RISING RIVER LEVELS…AND PERHAPS SOME FLOODING. ICE JAM MOVEMENT
MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE HYDROLOGIC ISSUES AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME…THE POTENTIAL GREATEST RIVER RISES AND POSSIBLE
MINOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE IN PORTIONS OF THE HOOSIC RIVER
BASIN…INCLUDING THE WALLOOMSAC RIVER. AGAIN…TRENDS IN QPF WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY…WITH ICE JAM MOVEMENT POSSIBLY
FURTHER EXACERBATING RIVER RISES AND HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…KL/JPV
NEAR TERM…KL/NAS
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…KL/JPV

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License