January 8, 2014 Forecast Discussion

00
FXUS61 KALY 081137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT…BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME MODERATION OCCURRING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND…ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 637 AM EST…CANCELLED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WITH THIS UPDATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING UNTIL 10 AM.

KTYX RADAR INDICATING THE SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND HAS
CONTRACTED CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES AND AWAY FROM
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. IN THESE ENVIRONMENTS EXTREME LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY IS A MITIGATING FACTOR TO INLAND EXTENT…AND
A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION IS REQUIRED TO OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION.
HOWEVER…WIND DIRECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY…WHICH HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE
CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON. THUS…WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR AREA TODAY. ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. THEREFORE WE HAVE CANCELLED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING. IN GENERAL…THE POSITION OF THE PERSISTENT LAKE BAND HAS
BEEN NORTH OF WHAT HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS…WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA.

ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TODAY…AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER TO AROUND 1 KM. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY…IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

WIND CHILL READINGS ARE BORDERLINE FOR HEADLINES THIS MORNING…BUT
SINCE VALUES ARE CLOSE AND WILL BE EXCEEDED IN AT LEAST SOME
AREAS…WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY/WARNING UNTIL 10 AM. IT WILL
REMAIN COLD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY…BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS FRIGID WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE TEENS IN MOST
AREAS. SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL STILL HAVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
DEAL WITH. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY…BUT LESS WIND THAN TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
VERY SHALLOW…WHICH WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND COLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE DECREASING WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH…ALTHOUGH MIN TEMPS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COLD WITH GENERALLY SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SHOULD
DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE MOVES OVERHEAD. GRADUAL MODERATION WILL CONTINUE…AS
MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO
DEVELOP. MIN TEMP FORECAST IS TRICKY…AS CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL
COOLING WILL BE TIED TO HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER IS AND VARIATION
IN WIND SPEED WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING SHELTERED.

WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE OR LIFT
DEPICTED FROM MODEL GUIDANCE…THUS THE LOW POPS. DESPITE CLOUD
COVER…TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS
WARMING ALOFT BECOMES MORE SUBSTANTIAL. VALLEY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD…ARE EXPECTED RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN AS BOTH NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY COME INTO PLAY. WILL START OUT THE PERIOD
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHIFTING OUT TO SEA AS SHARP TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
DESPITE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY.

AT THIS TIME…TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED DROP INTO THE
20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA…HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE APPROACHING SURGING WARMER AIR IN SETTING THE STAGE FOR LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS ANTICIPATED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GET GOING AS A VERY STRONG 850 MB JET
OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT RAIN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING INCLUDING ICE JAMS ISSUES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT…THEN THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE GROWS AS THEY DEAL WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE PATTERN AND TIMING AND STRENGTHEN
OF ASSOCIATED SYSTEMS. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FOR THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER WHICH WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. HAVE
RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS…NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM…IMPACT THE
REGION. EXPECTING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH
P-TYPES CHANGING DUE TO THE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD…12Z/THURSDAY. HAVE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS DOWN WIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO. MAINLY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL STREAM LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
MOVES OVERHEAD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO WEST THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN…FZRA…SLEET.
SAT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. CHC FZRA IN THE AM.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. CHC SHRA…SHSN LATE.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER ICE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK…AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ICE JAMS CURRENTLY ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER NEAR
BUSKIRK…THE BATTENKILL RIVER NEAR BATTENVILLE AND THE WEST RIVER
NEAR BRATTLEBORO.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND…AND MUCH OF IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS…WHICH WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN
RISING RIVER LEVELS AND PERHAPS SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY…WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ058-063.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
033-038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-082>084.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…JPV
NEAR TERM…JPV
SHORT TERM…JPV
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…11/JPV

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