January 7, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 072307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK…WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND STILL EVOLVING AND STILL EXPECTING A SLOW
DRIFT SOUTHWARD…SO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE BAND THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION DESCRIBES ISSUES WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
BAND AND IS BELOW…

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY…THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WILL START TO SLIDE BACK
SOUTH TOWARDS OLD FORGE THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WESTERLY BREEZE
WILL PERSIST DURING THE TIME…WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THUS WILL CONTINUE ALL WIND CHILL
HEADLINES THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL…ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN SINGLE DIGITS.

OTHER THAN THE LAKE EFFECT IT WILL BE DRY ACRS THE FA. THE HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS…AGAIN WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM OLD FORGE AND ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOCAL INLAND EXTENT TOOL FROM CSTAR
RESEARCH INDICATES THE SNOW BAND MAY EVEN EXTEND WELL EASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY…WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL THE WAY
TO INDIAN LAKE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER TO AROUND 1
KM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/…
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE WINDING DOWN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LET UP WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY…WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO DEVELOP. EXPECT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE 5 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE WEEKEND WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OFF NEW ENGLAND…USHERING IN A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS…
TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY BOTH DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS SATURDAY…BUT ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT DOESN`T
COME PACKED WITH COLD AIR…THE PRECIPITATION COULD COOL THE COLUMN
ENOUGH FOR THE SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND BECOME SNOW IN MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN.

AS PART OF THE CONTINUING RAPID MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS…A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT…BRINGING ANOTHER…THOUGH LESSER AND QUICKER-
HITTING…CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY…MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. A GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS…TO THE MID 40S
DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN COLDER AS A COLD FRONT IN TWO SEPARATE
SEGMENTS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS…TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY…SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN MOSTLY
THE TEENS AND 20S…WITH SATURDAY NIGHT A BIT MILDER WITH LOWS FROM
AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY…SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY…ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS NIGHTTIME MIXING IS
DEPRESSED. REGARDLESS…WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS…ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING…AND
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT WEDNESDAY…SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES TO END THE TAF PERIOD…WITH A
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS…AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

OUTLOOK…
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS…EXCLUDING SOME ISSUES WITH ICE JAMS.

FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER ICE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

ICE JAMS CURRENTLY ARE IN PLACE ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER NEAR
BUSKIRK…THE BATTENKILL RIVER NEAR BATTENVILLE AND THE WEST RIVER
NEAR BRATTLEBORO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…JPV
NEAR TERM…11/NAS
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…11

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