Monday January 6, 2014

Polar plunge round 2

Last Updated:

8:00PM Monday
January 6, 2014

School Forecast For:
Tuesday January 6th

Two Hour Delay No School Early Dismissal
40% 10% 0%

Brief Overview
Last Updated: 8:00PM Jan. 6th

Please Note
In the past 8 years, Kingston has never delayed or cancelled classes solely based on temperature extremes. Tonight's probability forecast is largely in uncharted territory, and most of the confidence in the forecast comes from the cancellations that are already in place.


8:00PM Monday

Almost all Ulster County school districts cancelled after school activities today, due to "inclement weather". I am interpreting this to mean black ice and cold temperatures. That being said, Rondout Valley, Saugerties, and Ellenville school districts have already issued two hour delays in anticipation of extreme cold tomorrow morning.

Black Ice:
The threat for black ice will only continue into the morning as temperatures will not be rising any time soon. In fact, temperatures look to remain well below freezing through Wednesday morning, so don't expect black ice to go anywhere any time soon.

Extreme Cold:
The national weather service has issued a wind chill advisory through Wednesday morning. At wind chills of -15, frostbite can occur within 30 minutes if skin is not protected. Temperatures are expected to "rise" from the mid single digits barely into the teens. Wind chills are forecast to rise from -15 around daybreak to -6 in the early afternoon.

Based on today's afternoon cancellations, the wind chill advisory, and that 3 of Ulster County's 9 school districts have already issued delays favors additional delays tomorrow. I have opted to issue a slight chance of a cancellation as well, because as mentioned, conditions are only expected to modestly improve during the day.

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I'll do a black ice run and have
a 10PM update.

Kingstonsnows Forecast
Last Updated: 7:00PM Jan. 6th

Forecast at a glance
- AM Temp PM Temp Weather Timing Confidence
Tuesday 3 to 8 10 to 15 Mostly Clear - High
Wednesday 0 to 10 15-20 Partly Cloudy - High
Thursday 13 to 18 20 to 25 Clear - High
Friday 20 to 25 30 to 35 Cloudy - Medium
Saturday 25 to 35 40 to 50 Rain P.M. Medium
Sunday 35 to 45 45 to 55 Rain showers A.M. Low
Monday 30 to 40 35 to 45 Rain showers A.M. Low

Tuesday

Generally clear, but bitterly cold.
Morning temperatures in the mid single digits.
Afternoon highs barely getting into the teens.

A stiff breeze, with gusts up to 30 mph possible.
Wind chills as low as -15 throughout the day.

Wednesday

Partly cloudy, not quite as cold.
Morning temperatures in the mid single digits.
Afternoon highs in the upper teens.
Morning wind chills below zero.

Thursday

Clear skies.
Morning temperatures in the mid teens.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower 20s.

Friday

Cloudy.
A slight chance of now flurries.
Temperatures ranging from the
lower 20s to the lower 30s.

Saturday

Increasing clouds.
Rain developing in the evening.
Morning lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Evening highs in the 40s.

Sunday

A chance of morning rain showers.
Temperatures ranging from the upper 30s,
to the mid 50s.

Monday

Cloudy.
A chance of morning rain showers.
Temperatures ranging from the upper 30s,
to the mid 40s.

Long-range school impact (probability)
The long range impact is a general outlook, and is not a specific forecast.
Day (Date) Delay Cancellation E.D. Confidence
Monday (13) None None None Low
Tuesday (07) Medium Low None High
Wednesday (08) Low None None High
Thursday (09) None None None High
Friday (10) None None None Medium

Next Update:

10:00PM Monday

Kingstonsnows ♦ Kingston, NY

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