January 6, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 070305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST MON JAN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT…AS A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION…AND LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO OVER
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/…
AS OF 1005 PM EST…A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRIES. THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE
POPS HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHC VALUES OVER THE CATSKILLS AND
HELDERBERGS WITH A HALF AN INCH SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY UP
TO AN INCH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOW CHC AND SLIGHT CHC POPS HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE. THE LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS
SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY…BUT BASED ON
THE LATEST HIRES WRF IT SHOULD DESCEND BACK S/SE INTO THE WRN
DACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THE MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION INCREASING. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING CONTINUES FOR
NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN UP THROUGH TOMORROW IN THE
BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

PREVIOUS LAKE EFFECT AND WIND CHILL DISCUSSION THROUGH TOMORROW…
SOME HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF ROUTE 28 WITH A FOOT TO TWO AND A HALF FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT…THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
RUNS TO 1 PM ON WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
COLD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS WHERE A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL
READINGS DURING MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 29
BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO IN THE
WARNING AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
LITTLE MODERATION AND EXPECT WINDS TO ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 5
BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE WINDING DOWN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LET UP WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT…THIS PORTION OF THE EXTEND PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE RATHER TRANQUIL AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE
EAST OF OUR REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOME 12Z
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK WARM FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT
TRIES TO SHOW UP OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING
TREND…AS WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER…AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY…AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY MORNING…A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND MOS
DATA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A DEEPENING 500 HPA AREA OF
VORTICITY /SHORT-WAVE/ ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC MAY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT…AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL
BE DIURNALLY DICTATED AS LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 40S FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION AS T850 TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 8C AND 11C. THE
FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING…AS A TEMPORARY COOL
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN TO
ANOTHER WARMING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY…AS A SHORTWAVE
LENGTH AND AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL DICTATE THE NORTHERN U.S.
AS WE GO INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU WITH JUST SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND
TONIGHT. VCSH GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED TO ADDRESS THE SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. CIGS WILL VARY FROM SCT-BKN AT 3.5-5 KFT AGL INTO
TOMORROW WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG…AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS. W/NW WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT 18-23 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30-35 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK…

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BLUSTERY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

COLDER TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ALLOW
FOR RIVER ICE TO THICKEN. TEMPS WILL FINALLY MODERATE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11/WASULA
NEAR TERM…11/WASULA
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…LFM
AVIATION…WASULA
HYDROLOGY…11

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