January 3, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 032022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
322 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW…BEFORE ANOTHER STORM THREATENS THE REGION
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/…
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
REGION THROUGH 9 AM EST SATURDAY…

A FRESH DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO -15 TO
-20 C…ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DIMINISHING WIND WILL
RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A PNS HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO
THE WSW FOR WIND CHILLS TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE DANGEROUS
COLD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE SOME ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
START TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTN HOURS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT…BUT WITH THE SNOWPACK…IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY
BEGIN AS SNOW…BUT MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS…ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST
PERIODS AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS
FAVOR A POTENTIALLY LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. CURRENTLY HAVE
PLACED AMOUNTS FORM A TENTH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS NRN AREAS
WHICH MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
FALLING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A
FAIRLY STRONG LAKE BAND TO SET UP ACRS THE WRN ADIRONDACKS AND
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH…THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SIGNIFICANT. SO WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
GENERALLY POPULATED THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE
WITH 12Z/03 HPC GUIDANCE…WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS AS NOTED.
OVERALL…THE DEEP POLAR VORTEX ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SE
CANADA DOMINATES THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. EXTREME COLD WILL
OCCUR ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION…ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LOW WIND
CHILLS. IN ADDITION…LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE POLAR VORTEX GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
WED-THU…BUT A FAST MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION THU OR FRI. THIS MAY SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME…AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING FAIRLY
COLD…SNOW SHOULD BE THE MAIN P-TYPE.

MON NT-WED NT…AS THE DEEP SFC LOW TRANSLATES NORTH INTO EASTERN
CANADA…AND A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION…A STRONG…BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS FOR MON NT IN
MOST AREAS…EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VERY LOW WIND CHILLS…AND
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MON NT-WED
AM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE -15 TO -30 F RANGE. A DEEP…LOW LEVEL
W/SW FLOW WILL ALSO FAVOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOWBANDS INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN
ADDITION…AS A PIECE OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION…LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPS…TUE MAXES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 10
ABOVE FOR MOST AREAS…AND IN FACT SUBZERO FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…AND SOUTHERN
VT. THESE TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 12Z/03 HPC
NUMBERS…AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW COLD VALLEY AREAS
MAY BE WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR INFILTRATING THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST…AS SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CATSKILLS COULD OCCUR.
TUE NT/WED AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER THAN TUE AM…WITH
MINS OF FIVE TO FIFTEEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION…ALTHOUGH EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF WINDS DECREASE. ON
WED…TEMPS MAY GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S…WITH WED NT/THU AM MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS.

THU-FRI…LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION…WHICH COULD INTERACT WITH SOME GULF
MOISTURE TO BRING STEADY…STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
MODEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW…SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE REGION FOR LATE THU-THU
NT…AND SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…BEFORE DRIFTING TO OUR EAST
SATURDAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/SAT. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE CAVEAT WILL BE ANY LOCALIZED BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW…WHICH
COULD CAUSE TEMPORARY VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR EVEN IFR.
OTHERWISE…EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT…WITH
SOME PATCHY HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON…WITH
A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE…ESP AT KPOU. WIND
DIRECTION MAY REMAIN MORE NE TO E AT KGFL DUE TO LOCAL TOPOGRAPHICAL
EFFECTS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING…BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE…AND EVEN CALM. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH
SATURDAY MORNING…AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK…
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN…SLEET.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN…SLEET…FZRA. MON:
HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY FZRA…RA. CHC SN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO OUR
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE
EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND PTYPE…EXPECT LITTLE IF A
IMPACT ON THE RIVERS AS ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE PCPN WILL FALL
AS RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>041-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-
043.
MA…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11
NEAR TERM…11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…KL
HYDROLOGY…11

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