January 3, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 031154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION…THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR
THIS MORNING…WITH CONTINUED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND
CHILL VALUES. FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW…BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
THREATENS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 650 AM EST…A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFF
THE JERSEY SHORE AND IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION. ALOFT…A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL PA…AND IS QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST. STEADY SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO JUST SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR TODAY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY…CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STARTS TO APPROACH
THE AREA. ANY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY MID
MORNING…ALTHOUGH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE WINDS STARTS TO
DIE DOWN.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS CONTINUES TO
BRING IN VERY COLD AIR FROM CANADA THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPS RANGE FROM -12 F IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO 3 ABOVE IN MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. MOST AREAS IN THE CAPITAL REGION ARE BELOW
ZERO…AND WITH THE COLD WIND…WIND CHILL VALUES ARE AS LOW AS
-25 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS…AND THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING
IS ALSO COVERING FOR THE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH IT/S EXPIRATION TIME AT 10 AM.
IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS…ESP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN…MAY CONTINUE TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES
/-15 F TO -20 F OR COLDER/ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY…AND
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY IF WIND
SPEEDS DONT LOWER AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE
MENTIONED IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

TEMPS TODAY WON/T RISE VERY MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES…AND
MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD. TEMPS IN THE ADIRONDACKS WON/T RISE
ABOVE ZERO…AND ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10…EXCEPT FOR TEENS NEAR POUGHKEEPSIE AND NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT…ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
A FRESH DEEP SNOW PACK…MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THEIR LOWEST
LEVELS IN SEVERAL YEARS OVER THE REGION. ALL AREAS LOOK TO BE
BELOW ZERO…WITH -8 TO -15 IN THE CAPITAL REGION…AND -15 TO -25
IN THE SARATOGA SPRINGS AND GLENS FALLS AREAS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
WINDS SHOULD BE 5 MPH OR LESS…SO WHILE NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES
ARE REQUIRED…IT WILL BE BRUTALLY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD OVER THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FOR SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS…ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS RECENT
DAYS…WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR SAT NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LIGHT
PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTN HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT…BUT WITH THE SNOWPACK…IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR SFC TEMPS TO WARM. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS
SNOW…BUT MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS
THE EVENING HOURS…ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX
TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA INCLUDING SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA…WITH IT BEING THE LEAST LIKELY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE SYSTEM…WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDS CHILLS LIKELY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

ALSO…LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

START OUT WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MID WEST AND DEEP TROUGH DOWN
INTO TO THE GULF. A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEADING TO THE NORTHEAST. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WITH ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA INTO MID WEEK.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW
SHOULD PASS JUST TO OUR WEST. USED THE WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE
FOR THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH FAVORS A ECMWF AND
ECMEAN SOLUTION. A VERY STRONG 850 MB JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL
BRING WARMER AIR IN ALOFT…4 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG PLUS THE
WIDESPREAD FRESH SNOWPACK WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM RISING
A LOT. FAVORED ECMX MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND ONLY WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WOULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WITH
ICE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK BY AROUND MID MORNING
THEN TEMPERATURES DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION THAT IS NOT SNOW
WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO
THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO -25 TO NEAR
-30 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR TUESDAY. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND -10 DEGREES TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES. TO ADD TO THE BITTER COLD WILL BE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. SO
LOOKING AT DANGEROUSLY COLD TO LIFE THREATENING WINDS CHILLS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SO THE FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND THE HIGH WILL BECOME WESTERLY. SO WHILE DRY WEATHER
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK…THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE DEEP SURFACE LOW HEADING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK WITH SOME GUSTS
THIS MORNING CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK…
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN…SLEET.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN…SLEET…FZRA. MON:
HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY FZRA…RA. CHC SN.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING…OTHERWISE
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK FOR SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH WARMER AIR EXPECTED ALOFT…PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX…AND PERHAPS
CHANGING TO RAIN IN SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
042.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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