January 2, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 030152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
852 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT…AND TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY. FRIGID ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY ON BRISK WINDS AND SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATES WILL
MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM WILL THREATEN THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 845 PM EST…THE N EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE
WAS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-88 CORRIDOR REFLECTING UPPER SUPPORT
(500HPA SHORT WV) TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF NJ. THIS SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK ENE OUT TO SEA TNGT. THE W
EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF I-95…AND IT WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE EXTREME SE
PORTIONS OF FCA. FURTHER N ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STILL RESULTING IN
ENHANCED SNOW BAND FM NR BGM TO ALB LN. N OF THIS ONLY -SN WAS
FALLING.

AS THE STORM ALONG THE COAST TAKES OVER…SNOW WILL DIMINISH FM NW
TO SE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS RECEIVE ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.5 IN LIQ
EQUIV OVERNIGHT AND WITH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 THAT
PLUS AMOUNTS ALREADY ON THE GROUND SHOULD BE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FCST TOTALS.

FCST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET AS EVENT WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT AND
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO GRIDS WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT…WITH SPEEDS OF
10-20 MPH DEVELOPING…ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH…ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE DRY CONSISTENCY OF THE
SNOW…WE EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO DEVELOP.

GIVEN THAT CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY GENERALLY WITH IN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO…HAVE SIDED WITH THE COLDER MAV MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT…WITH TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW
FOR MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY N…W AND NE…WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW
READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER SOUTH…EXPECT
MIN TEMPS TO FALL GENERALLY TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
REACH 15 TO 25 BELOW IN MANY AREAS…EXCEPT 10 T0 20 BELOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE ONGOING WSW STATEMENTS EXCEPT FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…WHERE WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
FRIDAY…SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING FOR AREAS
NEAR AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER…BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMTS
DURING THIS TIME SHOULD GENERALLY BE ONE INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE…SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE IN MOST AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON…EXCEPT -20 TO -25 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONAL
WIND CHILL STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT…GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES…DIMINISHING WINDS…AND A
FRESH…DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. HAVE
EITHER SIDED WITH…OR WENT BELOW THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE…WITH
WIDESPREAD SUBZERO TEMPS LIKELY. SOME TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL TO
BETWEEN -20 AND -30 ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION…AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE
IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

SAT-SAT NT…GENERALLY FAIR…BUT QUITE COLD. SAT MAX TEMPS ONLY
SHOULD REACH THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S…AND MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS. SNOW SHOWERS COULD REACH THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SAT NT…IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURGE OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WITH A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY…

COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS SET TO RETURN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK…

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD…ANOTHER POWERFUL AND DYNAMIC
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE AS EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CARVE A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER IMPRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM PV
ANOMALY BEING INGESTED INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM…ALLOWING FOR A
POTENT SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW…GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWARDS AS NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY BEGIN TO PHASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION…BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO THAT
REGION. HOWEVER…LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW…WITH THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION
HINGING ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ABOUT THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH…WHICH CAN PROVE CHALLENGING TO DISCERN 3-5 DAYS OUT IN
MODEL RUNS WHERE LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVES ARE TRYING TO BE ANALYZED.

HOWEVER…BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF…GFS AND GEFS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK…WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE LOW RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

PRECIPITATION TYPE THEN BECOMES QUITE TRICKY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COMPLICATING MATTERS ARE A NEGATIVE NAO AND DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION…WHICH WOULD FAVOR A COLDER SOLUTION. WILL FAVOR
A COLDER SOLUTION AS A STRONG NORTHERLY AGEOSTROPHIC LOW-LEVEL WIND
WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM
DESPITE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING DEPENDENT ON
THE ULTIMATE SURFACE LOW TRACK. REGARDLESS…IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
AREA…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND PRIMARILY SNOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WITH
850 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING +2-3C.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVER…WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE…SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH A LINGERING WINTRY MIX FURTHER NORTH BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS STORM IN THE HWO.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM…A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MAY SET UP
ACROSS THE TUGHILL PLATEAU INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND -25C…ALLOWING FOR MOST OF THE REGION TO DIP BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT…ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER STILL EXISTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE PLUMMETING BELOW ZERO AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO POTENTIALLY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WIND
CHILL THREAT IN THE HWO AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK…ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT THREAT
BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY GRAZES THE REGION TO END THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVIEST FROM 03Z - 09Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO LIFR FOR
THE EVENING WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SNOW LIGHTENS.

NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12KTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE 00-12Z PERIOD.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN…SLEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN…FZRA…SLEET.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY LIKELY RA…SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK…WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO FORM AND
THICKEN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH WARMER AIR EXPECTED ALOFT…PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX…AND PERHAPS CHANGING
TO RAIN IN SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
042.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…SNYDER
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…IRL
AVIATION…IAA/11
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS/KL

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