000
FXUS61 KALY 021359
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
859 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL
REFORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING…AND MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS…WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES. DRY…BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY…BEFORE ANOTHER STORM THREATENS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 845 AM EST…A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE
CAPITAL REGION…MOHAWK VALLEY REGION…EXTENDING INTO THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS…AND ALSO INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING…COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF MID
LEVEL FORCING…AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL…SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS…WITH THE
STEADIEST SNOWFALL SHIFTING INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY…THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION…AND SOUTHERN VT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS TO THE SOUTH…INCLUDING THE CAPITAL
REGION…EXPERIENCE A BREAK…OR AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHTER
SNOWFALL…FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WHERE THE BAND SETS UP…AN
ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH…GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED…WITH EVEN LESS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN MUCH LOWER THAN ANY GUIDANCE SUGGESTED…WITH
CURRENT TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN VALLEY
AREAS AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST…WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST…TEMPS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. WE EXPECT
TEMPS TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH
SHOULD FALL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION AS THE COLD DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD.
SO…EXPECT MOST VALLEY AREAS TO RANGE BETWEEN ZERO AND 10
ABOVE…WITH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLY HOLDING AROUND ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/…
BY THIS EVENING…PRESSURE FALLS WILL BEGIN OCCURRING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST…AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE COAST
OF VIRGINA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WELL
OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN US. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW
WON/T BE TOO CLOSE TO OUR REGION…IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO THROW
SOME ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OUR WAY. WITH THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD…STEADY SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION…WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
WITH CONTINUED VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS…ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT…ALLOWING FOR
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
BY TOMORROW MORNING. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE LESS QPF IS EXPECTED…AND A FEW SPOTS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS…GREENS…AND BERKSHIRES MAY
SEE CLOSE 15 INCHES IN TOTAL. STEADY SNOW LOOKS TO TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE…N-NE WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW…THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOWFALL. TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 25 BELOW ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS…WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -25 TO -40 OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS…AND -10 TO -25 ELSEWHERE. BECAUSE OF THIS…A WIND
CHILL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS…AND WIND CHILL
INFORMATION HAS BEEN POSTED IN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING /WSW/ FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT EASTERN AREAS FOR TOMORROW
MORNING…OTHERWISE SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY AFTN. DESPITE
THE SUN RETURNING…IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. SOME AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY MAY NOT EVEN RISE ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT…ALLOWING
SKIES TO BE MAINLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN UP…AND WITH THE FRESH DEEP SNOW PACK…A VERY COLD NIGHT
IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE CWA LOOKS TO DROP BELOW
ZERO…WITH TEMPS IN THE CAPITAL REGION DOWN AROUND -8 TO -15.
TEMPS AROUND GLENS FALLS AND IN THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE -20 TO
-25. BEFORE WINDS LIGHTEN UP…ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT…AND THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN
THE HWO. EVEN WITHOUT WIND…IT WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA…AND PRECAUTIONS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN TO PREVENT
DAMAGE TO HOMES…BUSINESSES…AND LIVESTOCK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR QUIET AND DRY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL…BUT WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT FROM THE BRUTALLY COLD LEVELS OF FRI/FRI NIGHT…AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MAX TEMPS ON SAT AFTN
LOOK TO REACH THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING
SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE AREA.
WE START OUT THE PERIOD A WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE…A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY CANADA
WITH ITS COLD FRONT TRAILING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR
REGION. HOWEVER AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE DEEP TROUGH SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP ON THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A WINTRY MESS TO THE OUR
REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND START THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS MODEL DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE…HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EACH OTHER.
THE ECMWF IS STILL TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THEN
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN
THE GFSENSEMBLE TRACKS WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH THE MOST WESTERN
MEMBERS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE THERMAL
PROFILE AND THEREFORE P-TYPES AS WARMER AIR SURGES IN AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
WHICH USED A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH.
BASED ON THIS TRACK AND TIMING TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MONDAY MORNING THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM. DID UNDERCUT TEMPERATURES AS IT WILL BE HARD TO WARM UP
WITH WIDESPREAD DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK ACROSS AREA. AREAS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S.
A STRONG 850 MB JET OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS WILL BRING WARMER AIR IN ALOFT
AND THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION STORM
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF
BY MONDAY EVENING WITH IT CHANGING BACK TO SNOW POSSIBLY BEFORE
ENDING AS COLD AIR IS USHERING IN. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
COLDER AIR WILL SURGE IN BY 12Z/TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -25C…WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. DAYTIME
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OUR NORMAL LOWS
SHOULD BE. WINDS WILL BE BRISK TUESDAY ONLY MAKING IT COLDER. COULD
HAVE ISSUES WITH WIND CHILLS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD…12Z/FRIDAY. THE SNOW
WILL COME DOWN HEAVIEST THIS EVENING AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LOWER TO LIFR FOR THE EVENING WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED TO LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE SNOW
LIGHTENS UP.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS LOW MOVES OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRENGTHENS. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK…
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN…SLEET. SUN
NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA…SN…FZRA…SLEET.
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK…WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO FORM AND
THICKEN.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH WARMER AIR EXPECTED ALOFT…PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AS SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX…AND PERHAPS CHANGING
TO RAIN IN SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
042.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS
