January 1, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 020004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
704 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY…AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW FOR A LONG DURATION TO THE REGION…BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT…AND ENDING FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW…ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DRY…BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SATURDAY…BEFORE ANOTHER STORM THREATENS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
…WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST AREAS…EXCEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…

…WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…

AS OF 515 PM EST…CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION…AS
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NYS…AND GRADUALLY
EXPANDING NE.

WE EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND PERHAPS WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 8 PM…AND
THE CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES…SOUTHERN VT…AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

IT APPEARS THAT THE STEADIEST SNOW OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL
BE MAINLY WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER/INTERSTATE
90…AND POINTS SLIGHTLY NORTH…WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER SOUTH…WHERE FORCING WILL BE
LESS…GENERALLY ONLY 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED…AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT…LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING THU AM FOR AREAS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER/INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR…INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION…INTO WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN
VT…WHERE THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL REMAIN MOST PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST…ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT…AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING…A LULL
IN THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED…AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/F-GEN
LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER…AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST…A STRONGER PERIOD OF MID LEVEL F-GEN
FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW SNOW TO BLOSSOM FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN…ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INFUSED
INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH…AS MODELS SUGGEST OUR
REGION WILL BE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL…925-850 MB
EAST/NORTHEAST JET. SO…A PERIOD OF MODERATE…TO PERHAPS
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT…ESP BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 00Z-06Z FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS…AND 03Z-12Z FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS…AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWARD. AT THIS TIME…GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF HIGH AVERAGE
SLR/S OF AROUND OR OVER 15 TO 1…EXPECT A GENERAL 8-14 INCH
SNOWFALL OVER A 24-30 HOUR PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE WARNING
AREA…WITH THE GREATEST AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS…AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN WITHIN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. FURTHER N AND
W…ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA…LESS OVERALL QPF IS EXPECTED…AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN FARTHEST FROM THE IMPINGING LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE INFLOW. STILL…SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES OVER A
24+ HOUR PERIOD ARE EXPECTED.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FOR CENTRAL AREAS…WITHIN THE I-90/MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION…LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION…SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA…THE KEY TO GETTING THE FULL
8-14 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LARGELY BE THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION
OF THE SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT/F-GEN. SHOULD THIS BE LESS THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED…OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS IN THIS REGION. IN
ADDITION…GIVEN SUCH COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING
N/NE WIND TRAJECTORY…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME ADDED MOISTURE AND
RESULTING SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR DUE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOWERING TEMPS TO
PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION…WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE LATE THU NT AND EARLY FRI AM
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS…AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET…THEREFORE A WIND
CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER…THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO DOES EXIST.

FRI-FRI NT…SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E FRI MORNING…AND
SHOULD BE OVER IN MOST AREAS BY NOON…WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD…WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING ZERO TO 10 ABOVE IN MOST AREAS…EXCEPT FOR 10 TO 15 ABOVE
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT…WHILE GENERALLY ONLY
REACHING -5F TO +5 F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN…FOR FRI NT…THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES GIVEN A
DEEP…FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE…MAINLY CLEAR SKIES…AND WINDS
DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM. HAVE GONE BELOW ALL MOS FOR MINS…WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP AS LOW AS 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…AND POSSIBLY THE LAKE GEORGE REGION…AND
WIDESPREAD MINS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE…EXCEPT ZERO TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH CRESTING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. SUNSHINE WILL HELP EASE THE
COLD A LITTLE ON SATURDAY…BUT IT WILL STILL PLENTY COLD WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY STILL IN THE TEENS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS…AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE MIGHT JUST PREVENT ANOTHER FREE FALL OF
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSUMING THE CLOUDS DO
INCREASE…OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES. IF WE
DO NOT CLOUD UP UNTIL LATE…IT COULD STILL GET QUITE A BIT COLDER
THAN THAT SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WARM UP WILL BE NOTICED ON SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERLY BREEZE INCREASES.
EVEN WITH CLOUDS…TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RECOVER TO NEAR 40 IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY…30S ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL GFS…AND MUCH OF ITS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE…STILL INSISTED
ON TRACKING THIS STORM TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER…THE 12Z CANADIAN AND
ESPECIALLY EUROPEAN (ECMWF) CONTINUED TO TRACK THIS STORM FURTHER
WEST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS TRACK WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH LOOKS A LOT FURTHER WEST THAN
THE ON-GOING ONE. WPC ALSO FAVORED THE EUROPEAN TRACK SO THAT IS HOW
WE HANDLED IT.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT NOT DROP MUCH…IF AT ALL.
PRECIPITATION WORKS IN…SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN…BUT DUE TO THE
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TRACK…WE STILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW (IN
CASE THE GFS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT). LOWS LOOK TO BE AROUND
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT…MAYBE RISING A BIT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE 40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH ON MONDAY…30S
ABOVE FREEZING TO THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES (NOT
JUST RAIN OR SNOW BUT POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET AS
WELL). FOR NOW…SINCE IT IS STILL QUITE A FEW DAYS AWAY…WENT WITH
A RAIN/SNOW POSSIBILITY BASED ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

WHATEVER WARMUP WE GET WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ALL THE EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS DRIVE ANOTHER WICKEDLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
SINK BACK TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS SOUTH…INSURING ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN HOW FAST
THIS TEMPERATURE COULD HAPPEN…A FLASH FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOOKING SYSTEM MIGHT SPREAD SOME SNOW OUR WAY ON
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A FRIGID NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND
ZERO…TEMPERATURES WILL TO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
MAJOR IMPACT ON ALL THE AIRPORTS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
SNOWSTORM..

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT…THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS SNOW PROGRESSES FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z…WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY AS THE LARGE
SNOWSTORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT NORTHWEST THIS EVENING…THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED ON
THURSDAY TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITHS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK…
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHSN…SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA…SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK…WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO FORM AND
THICKEN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE INITIALLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX…BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR NYZ064>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM…KL
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…HWJIV
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS/KL

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License