January 1, 2014 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 011746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS…
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY AND STALLED OUT FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SNOW…ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. DRY…BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SATURDAY…BEFORE ANOTHER STORM THREATENS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…

AS OF 1245 PM EST…SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE PERSISTING IN A
SMALL BAND NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER…WHICH IS AT LEAST
IN PART A REMNANT LAKE EFFECT BAND…WITH SOME POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SOME SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES FROM A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS
APPROACHING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS…IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

WE EXPECT SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON…WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE TEENS TO MID 20S IN MOST AREAS…AND NEAR
30 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY…WHERE SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS MAY RISE ANOTHER 1-3 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON…BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN IN ALL AREAS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/…
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE
THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AREAS…FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA…

WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA…ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME…AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY…AND MOVE NORTHEAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE FAIRLY FAR OFF THE
COAST…BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO GET
THROWN BACK INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT…DEFORMATION WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL…BEFORE SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME BANDING OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. WHILE SNOW RATES AREN/T EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME AT
ANY POINT DURING THIS STORM…THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH…GENERALLY 15:1 OR
HIGHER…AS STRONG OMEGA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES /WHICH WILL BE VERY LOW TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPS IN PLACE/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO
ADDS UP VERY EASILY TO OCCUR.

THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS. THE 00Z AND 06Z
NAM HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER
MODELS…WITH OVER 1.00 INCH LIQUID OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM AND GEFS MEAN ARE
SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVE OR TAKE. THE
03Z SREF MEAN FOR KALB IS 0.84 INCHES. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW…BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS…AS THE NAM CAN SOMETIMES PICK UP ON MESOSCALE ASPECTS THAT
THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT. EVEN WITH THESE LESSER AMOUNTS…IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA /9 INCHES IN
24 HOURS/ ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH
RATIOS…WHICH IS WHY THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ADKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AREA…SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS…BUT A PLOWABLE SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COLD DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. AFTER TEMPS
REACH THE THEIR HIGH ON WEDNESDAY…THEY WILL BASICALLY HOLD
STEADY/SLOWLY FALL FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TONIGHT/THURSDAY…AND FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…TEMPS WILL FALL ZERO TO MINUS 20 FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A N-NE WIND IN PLACE…THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. A WIND CHILL WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF -30 TO
-40 BELOW ZERO FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE…WIND CHILL VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA..AND
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
MORNING…AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY FRI AFTN.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE SUN…IT WON/T DO ANYTHING FOR
TEMPS…WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME AREAS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY MAY NOT EVEN REACH ZERO
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CRESTING OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY. DESPITE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP IT WILL BE COLD WITH
THE FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION…AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PIECES OF
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE ABOUT THIS LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AND THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED AS THE POTENT SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST
PASSING THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW BEING FARTHER TO WEST. WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GFSENSEMBLE TRACKS. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THEREFORE P-TYPES.
HAVE USED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WHICH TOOK A
COMPROMISE TRACK THEN LEANED TOWARD THE GFS THE COLDER SCENARIO.

BASED ON THIS HAVE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WOULD EXPECT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD ON MONDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHWARD.
UNCERTAINTY IS THIS FORECAST IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

FOLLOWING THIS STORM SYSTEM ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT OUR NORMAL LOWS SHOULD
BE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER ISSUES THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS…

MAJOR IMPACT ON ALL THE AIRPORTS ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
SNOWSTORM..

IN THE SHORT TERM…WE ARE DEALING WITH SOME INNOCUOUS LAKE ENHANCED
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON
VISIBILITY OR CIGS (BOTH REMAINING VFR). THESE LOOK TO PERSIST AWHILE
INTO THE AFTERNOON…LIKELY FINISHED BY EVENING.

A LULL THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS THICKEN BUT REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET
(VFR).

LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT (AROUND MIDNIGHT)…PROBABLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES FIRST. HAVE A PERIOD OF VCSH
TO REFLECT THIS IDEA FROM 03Z-06Z. THEN…AFTER 06Z IT LOOKS AS IF
SNOW WILL FALLING HARD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS…IF NOT NOT LIFR BY THE MORNING PEAK.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KALB COULD GO DROP BELOW LANDING MINIMUMS IN MODERATE
SNOW AROUND OR A LITTLE 12Z…BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT IT WOULD OCCUR LONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF YET.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THERE COULD A REDUCTION IN THE SNOW
INTENSITY TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY…WHERE CONDITIONS MIGHT BRIEFLY
GO BACK TO MVFR. HOWEVER…NO CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT THAT IN THE
TAFS EITHER.

A NW BREEZE…GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON…WILL BACK TO THE NORTH
GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS THROUGH TOMORROW.

THE SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING PEAK.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN…BLOWING SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK…WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO FORM AND
THICKEN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA…WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS/KL
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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