December 26, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 261732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY….PRODUCING A WESTERLY FLO ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY AND A MILDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVER SPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA. LATE SUNDAY A STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST
POSSIBLY BRINGING RAIN OR SNOW TO THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY…AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL START
THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AS OF 1230 PM EST…OVER MOST OF AREA -SN CONTINUES TO MV EAST AND
WILL EXIT FCA NEXT 1-2 HRS.

500HPA JET MAX/ASSOC 500 SHORT WV OVER NYS AND SFC CDFNT FM NR
SYR- LONG IS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL EXIT RGN NXT FEW HOURS. RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND VLY LOCATIONS STILL HAVE T-TD
SPREAD OF 7-11 DEG F WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW. WHAT SNOW HAS FALLEN
TODAY HAS FAVORED HIR TRRN…AND UPSLOPE REGIONS TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE ABV…WILL DROP WWA IN ALL AREAS WITH THIS ESTF,

MESOSCALE WRF/HRRR AND LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION HAVE THE SNOW MOVING
OUT OF MOST OF AREA AS WELL NEXT FEW HOURS.

AFTWRDS FAST 500HPA FLOW DOMINATES THE RGN. SFC HIGH BUILDS FM OH
VLY THIS EVNG TO ATLC SEABOARD FRI. ALONG THE HIGHS N PERIPHERY
IT WILL EST A W-NW FLOW. W/CAA…NIZIOL INSTAB CLASS MODERATE…AND
A WEAK 500HPA SHORT WV WITH CAP UP ARND 7-8KFT LK RESPONSE WILL
SET UP THIS EVNG INTO FRI MORNING. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE W
ADRNDKS WHERE A FEW INCHES COULD FALL.

FRI AFTN 500HPA SHORT WV WILL EXIT RGN…WK RIDGING AT SFC WILL
END LLVL CONVERGENCE AND COMBINE TO HAMMER DOWN CAP TO 3KFT FRI
AFTN AND END THE LK EFFECT AS A FEW FLURRIES IN THE FLOW.

AWAY FM THE LK DURING THIS PERIOD THE SHORT WV…AND SOME LK
EFFECT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN VRBL CLOUDS AND SUN. TEMPS WILL BE
NR NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/…
FRI NT-SAT…ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES…ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
REMAIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER/HAMILTON COS AT
TIMES…WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS…ESP FRI NT/SAT AM. OTHERWISE…EXPECT A SLIGHT MODERATING
TREND IN TEMPS…WITH FRI NT/SAT AM MINS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S…WITH SAT MAXES REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN
VALLEY AREAS…AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SCRAPE OUR REGION…WITH THE MOST
PRECIPITATION LOOKING LIKE IT WILL OCCUR JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION. STILL…LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS…AND SNOW TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE
MORE NORTH AND WEST…AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GULF ORIGINS AND
THE CONVECTION AFFECTING DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING. THE BEST LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO BE ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND…AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO BE BORDERLINE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SNOW EVEN TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME…NOT GETTING TO
DETAILED AND JUST PUTTING SNOW AND RAIN AS PRECIPITATION TYPES…
EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MIXED SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM…AND THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THAT DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. HIGHS SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S…AS PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY…THEN TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION RAPIDLY
SPREADS THROUGH THE AREA. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY SHOULD
FORM…MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. SOME VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN MOST OTHER AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S…SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MAY TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST OTHER AREAS AS
WELL WITH THE MEAN FLOW ONCE AGAIN OF THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S…WITH SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON /14Z-18Z/. THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
POTENTIAL IFR VSBYS WILL POTENTIALLY BE NORTH AND EAST OF KALB OVER
KGFL AND KPSF IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY MID AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS IN THE 2-3 KFT AGL RANGE AND VSBYS 3-5 SM. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 22Z/THU.

THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 4-8 KTS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 7-12 KTS TOMORROW LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS BETWEEN 22Z-02Z.

OUTLOOK…

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA…SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN…SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS
TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON…WHICH
SHOULD NOT IMPACT WATERSHEDS AT ALL.

STREAM FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE RIVER AND LAKE ICE WAS LOST DURING THE RECENT
WARMUP…SOME ICE FORMATION WILL RETURN WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE…ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…SNYDER
SHORT TERM…KL/NAS
LONG TERM…NAS
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/KL

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