December 26, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 222350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. ONE MORE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG IT BRINGING ONE MORE SHOT OF RAINFALL
MAINLY FROM CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STAY COLD MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 650 PM EST…QUICK UPDATE TO COVER FOR FAST CHANGING
TEMPERATURE SWINGS ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS IF THE FRONT HAS SETTLED
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FELL BACK
TO THE 40S IN ROME AND HOLDING IN THE UPPER 30S AT ALBANY. FURTHER
NORTH LOWER TO MID 30S…FREEZING AND ABOVE. TO THE SOUTH AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EVEN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF
ALBANY…TEMPERATURES WERE STILL HOLDING IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME
60S EARLY THIS EVENING.

BASED ON CONTINUED LACK OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR…WENT
ONLY SLIGHT POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS…EXCEPT SCATTERED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK WHERE RADARS ARE PICKING UP SOME LIGHT
RETURNS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.

EARLY IT HAD BEEN A VERY INTERESTING DAY HERE LOCALLY IN ALBANY AS
WE BRIEFLY PUNCHED INTO THE WARM AIR WHICH INVOLVED SOMETHING
RESEMBLING A CHINOOK INCLUDING A SW WIND. THE TEMPERATURE ROSE
NEARLY 20 DEGREES BETWEEN 130 AND 230 PM…ONLY TO FALL QUICKLY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM PUNCH DID NOT
LIFT MUCH FARTHER NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. MEANWHILE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ALBANY…TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE 60S AS NEARBY
AS HUDSON AND AVERILL PARK.

MEANWHILE…ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE ALONG OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT
WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF
RAIN…MAINLY FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY. WE ARE
LOOKING FOR A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL OFF AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. H850
TEMPERATURES…WHICH ROSE OVER +10C OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY…WILL COOL BACK TO MUCH MORE NORMAL DECEMBER LEVELS…BELOW
0C BY LATE MONDAY.

ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW NORTH AND WEST
OF ALBANY BY LATE MONDAY…PROBABLY NOT FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

THE WAVE AND FRONT CLEAR THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WORKING
OVER THE LAKES LOOKS TO PERHAPS TRIGGER A LAKE RESPONSE. HOWEVER THE
CSTAR-RESEARCH DRIVEN KVIE INDICATED NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT BAND AS THE WIND SHEAR WAS TOO GREAT (WNW WIND SURFACE
WSW ALOFT) AND THE CAPPING INVERSION WAS ONLY ABOUT 1KM…WHICH
WOULD INHIBIT SNOW GROWTH. BOTTOM LINE…ANY LAKE EFFECT WOULD BE
MINIMAL BROKEN BANDS…PRODUCING NO MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH
OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY ELSEWHERE…BUT TURNING QUITE A BIT COLDER…WITH LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S FROM THE ALBANY SOUTHWARD…TEENS NORTH AND WEST
AND EVEN SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK.

TUESDAY…ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION
INDUCING BROAD ASCENT. IT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE SO FOR
NOW…ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON
TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF LATER RUNS DEVELOP A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT IT WAS NOT
THERE ON THIS SET OF GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE EASILY COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FALL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES…20S CENTRAL AREAS (UPPER 20S
CAPITAL REGION) AND LOWER 30S SOUTH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

CHRISTMAS EVE…HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND IT
LOOKS DRY BUT COLD RIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
TUMBLE TO BELOW ZERO AS LOW AS -10 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK
PARK…SINGLE NUMBERS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ZONES (INCLUDING
SOUTHERN VERMONT)…10-15 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY…WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE LOW TRACKING FROM
THE NORTHERN LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE OF LITTLE MORE
CONSEQUENCE THAN PROVIDING EXTRA CLOUDINESS. ANOTHER SUCH LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY…ALSO PROVIDING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT THE UPPER 20S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS…TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS
WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER ON FRIDAY…AND WILL HOLD AROUND
THESE VALUES FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE MILDEST…WITH HIGHS FROM
AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS…TO AROUND 40 IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORMAL HIGHS FOR ALBANY ARE AROUND
FREEZING…AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
FLYING CONDITIONS VARYING QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE AREA…WITH KGFL
SOCKED IN WITH LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS ON THE COLD SIDE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY…WHILE KPOU/KPSF ARE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. KALB IS RIGHT ON THE BORDER…AND HAS SEEN IFR
IMPROVE TO MVFR RECENTLY. CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 6-12
HOURS…ESPECIALLY AT KALB WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS NEARBY. WILL KEEP
LIFR AT KGFL THROUGH THE NIGHT…WITH VFR/MVFR AT KPSF/KPOU. WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT MVFR AT KALB…BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR/LIFR AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE BY.

LATER TONIGHT…A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAINFALL STARTING BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR BEFORE 12Z AT ALL TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 18Z OR 19Z…WITH RAIN THEN ENDING
AND DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK THEREAFTER WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND ERRATIC UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON…WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT.

OUTLOOK…
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
WE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AS THE RAIN DID NOT MATERIALIZE. THE
SNOW MELT DID PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANKS RISE ON SOME
RIVERS. UTICA DID REACH MINOR FLOOD BUT THAT WAS PARTIALLY DUE TO ON
GOING CONSTRUCTION TO THE CANAL AS WELL AS RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT LOOKS LIGHT AND SPOTTY…UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WITH VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT…THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SNOW TO MELT. FURTHER
NORTH…WHERE THERE IS SNOW…TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THEREFORE ANY SNOWMELT WILL BE MINIMAL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY…WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THIS RAIN MIGHT CAUSE ADDITIONAL WITHIN
BANKFULL RISES BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW IN THIS
AREA IS MOSTLY GONE.

COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
SWITCHING TO SNOW…BUT LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH NO IMPACTS ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN ANY
LEFTOVER RUNOFF.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/JPV

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License