December 10, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 102323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE AREA THE LIGHT SNOWFALL
WILL MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING DISRUPTING THE
LAKE EFFECT AND USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION…HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
WARREN COUNTY SPECIFICALLY THE PORTION BORDERING HAMILTON COUNTY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
TOMORROW NIGHT.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. FEW CHANGES NEEDED IF ANY THROUGH TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOPING…AND DETAILS ARE PROVIDED IN PREV
AFD BELOW…

WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND WILL DEVELOP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE CSTAR INLAND
LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT PROGRAM INDICATES THAT THE BAND SHOULD
EXTEND WELL INLAND FROM LAKE ONTARIO…ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO WARREN COUNTY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A
MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH LAKE SUPERIOR…LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN
BAY. ALSO THE LAKE ONTARIO WATERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM BASED ON
GLERL THE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE IS 46 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE
SNOWS WILL REALLY GET ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL
DISRUPT THE LAKE EFFECT. BY THE TIME THIS OCCUR SIGNIFICANT TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET IS FORECAST. EIGHT TO 16 INCHES IS
FORECAST ACROSS HAMILTON COUNTY WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY.

LOOKING AT NWS BURLINGTON SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS SNOW SQUALLS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE MAINLY NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
USHERED IN. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET UP IN THE
WAKE OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY INITIAL INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY THEN
SHIFTING NORTHERN BACK INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM MODELS…GFS/EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS WERE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY
FORECASTED TO WORK THROUGH…REINFORCING AN ALREADY CHILLY AIR MASS.
THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA…BUT THE HIGHEST THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOWFALL COULD ENSUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT…LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. A NORTHERLY ANTICYLONIC FLOW SHOULD SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER PERHAPS A FEW EVENING
SNOW SHOWERS.

THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEAM UP WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO POSSIBLY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW BY LATE
IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND IT LOOKS TO BE
ALL SNOW.

THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO
ORIGINATE WEST OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE…ANOTHER PIECE OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WEST OF CANADA IN
THE PACIFIC.

IF THIS TWO WERE TO HOOK UP AND ALLOW FOR PHASING…A POWERFUL
NOR`EASTER COULD DEVELOP BY LATE SATURDAY. ALL THE MODELS
HOWEVER…DO REALLY NOT PHASE THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY UNTIL THEY
ARE WELL NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGIONS…THEN PIVOT
TO THE EAST…WHILE THE SOUTHERN PIECE LOOKS TO DEVELOP A STORM THAT
WILL BECOME QUITE HEALTHY AS IT TRACKS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALL THE MODELS NOW INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN FOR MOSTLY SNOW…PERHAPS MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR RAIN
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THE BIGGER QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MIGHT JUST STAY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AS MUCH OF OUR REGION COULD END UP
BETWEEN GOOD FORCING FROM THE WESTERN EVENTUALLY DECAYING SYSTEM
VERSUS TO THE ONE TO THE EAST.

SO AT THIS POINT…WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT A STORM WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS WEEKEND. WE ARE NOT NOT AS CONFIDENT ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS BUT THERE IS INDEED A CHANCE IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
STORM. STAY TUNED.

WE ARE ALSO CONFIDENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 30 IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THEY WILL TUMBLE TO BETWEEN
ABOUT 5 BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY MORNING TO ABOUT
10 ABOVE ZERO IN IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT…LOWS WILL BE NEAR 10 NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LESS COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S IN
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES…TO MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

IT WILL TURN COLDER BEHIND THE STORM ONCE MORE…WITH TEMPERATURES
SINKING TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY
NIGHT ONLY TO RETURN TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000
FEET…OCCASIOANLLY SCATTERED.

A WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL 5-12KTS THROUGH TONIGHT…
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB AND KPSF THIS EVENING. TOMORROW
THE WIND WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS…ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK…
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO RELATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW…EXCEPT A WINTRY MIX IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ042.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/NAS
NEAR TERM…IAA/NAS
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…HWJIV
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…IAA

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License