Monday December 9, 2013

Early-week storm

Updated:

11:00 A.M. Monday December 9, 2013

School Forecast for:
Monday December 9, 2013

Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
30% 40% 0%
The Kingston City School District is closed.
I'll have a full update late this afternoon.


Update:
9:00PM Sunday

Bumped delay probabilities back up slightly to acknowledge notable dry air across the region. This dry air should continue to moisten, however, allowing light snow to develop by midnight. Otherwise, forecast remains largely unchanged:

Steady snow developing by 12AM.
Snow changing over to sleet/freezing rain/mix after 5AM.
Transition to plain light rain/showers after about 9AM.

Snow and sleet accumulations around an inch or so through the early morning. Light ice accretion possible.

Anticipated impacts are mostly due to timing, with worst road conditions expected between 5AM and 9AM.


Update:
1:00PM Sunday

Not much change to the anticipated storm.

Steady snow developing by about 12AM tonight,
a changeover to sleet or freezing rain after 5AM,
followed by a transition to plain rain after 8AM or 9AM.

We'll likely be looking at about an inch or so of snow by the time we transition over to sleet. Accumulations will largely stop once the sleet transition occurs. At that time, however, we'll have to start worrying about the potential for light icing and general slick conditions persisting, even on plowed roads.

Temperatures will only gradually rise into the mid 30s throughout the morning, so any late morning rain will likely only contribute to slushy conditions, opposed to significant melting.

Afternoon highs for tomorrow will top out around 40.

We'll likely be looking at either a delay or cancellation tomorrow.
At the moment, a cancellation still seems more likely.
I'll have at least one more update this evening.


Update:
12:30 P.M. Saturday

Kingston picked up just over an inch of wet sticky snow last night. Our attention now turns to a second storm, slated to affect us Sunday night into Monday.

Aside from Monday's storm,
the other main feature this week will be a dramatic cold surge with temperatures getting progressively colder throughout the week. An arctic front may touch off some brief light snow showers or squalls by Thursday morning.

Cancellation probabilities will be updated throughout the afternoon tomorrow.

Sunday
Partly cloudy
with clouds increasing throughout the afternoon.
Morning lows in the mid -teens.
Afternoon highs in the mid 30s.
Calm winds.

Monday

Cloudy.

Snow developing, mainly after 12AM.
Snow mixing with, or changing to sleet around 5AM.
Mix changing over to plain rain after 8AM.
Rain showers possible through late morning.

Snow accumulation of up to an inch or so,
depending on how much sleet mixes in.

Morning lows in the upper 20s.
Afternoon highs in the upper 30s.

Tuesday
Variable clouds.
A slight chance of snow showers after 8PM.
Any accumulations should remain under half an inch.
Early morning temperatures falling
from the mid to upper 30s
into the upper 20s by the evening.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun.
Temperatures falling from the upper 20s
into the mid teens.
Calm winds.

Thursday
A slight chance of brief light snow showers early in the day.
Cold. Temperatures falling from the upper teens into the single digits late in the day.

Next Update:
Sunday afternoon.


I wrote up a study I've been working on regarding the influences on local winter snowfalls. The study sought to answer the question, "Are earlier-starting winters more significant?"
From those results I am issuing my first winter forecast for Kingston, NY.

38 to 45 inches of snow (about average to slightly above)

60% chance of an average winter (33 to 43 inches),
30% of an above average winter (more than 43 inches),
10% of a below average winter (less than 33 inches)

Roughly 110 days of winter

A daily average snowfall of about 0.4, which is characteristic of a standard winter and more significant than the last two winters

About 8 to 10 snowfall events of at least one inch
I am considering this winter season as having started on November 23rd with the snow showers that coated Kingston, and the subsequent surge of arctic air.

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