Saturday December 7 2013

Early-week storm

Updated:
12:30 P.M. Saturday December 7, 2013

School Forecast for:
Monday December 8, 2013

Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
30% 40% 0%

Kingston picked up just over an inch of wet sticky snow last night. Our attention now turns to a second storm, slated to affect us Sunday night into Monday.

Aside from Monday's storm,
the other main feature this week will be a dramatic cold surge with temperatures getting progressively colder throughout the week. An arctic front may touch off some brief light snow showers or squalls by Thursday morning.

Cancellation probabilities will be updated throughout the afternoon tomorrow.

Sunday
Partly cloudy
with clouds increasing throughout the afternoon.
Morning lows in the mid -teens.
Afternoon highs in the mid 30s.
Calm winds.

Monday

Cloudy.

Snow developing, mainly after 12AM.
Snow mixing with, or changing to sleet around 5AM.
Mix changing over to plain rain after 8AM.
Rain showers possible through late morning.

Snow accumulation of up to an inch or so,
depending on how much sleet mixes in.

Morning lows in the upper 20s.
Afternoon highs in the upper 30s.

Tuesday
Variable clouds.
A slight chance of snow showers after 8PM.
Any accumulations should remain under half an inch.
Early morning temperatures falling
from the mid to upper 30s
into the upper 20s by the evening.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun.
Temperatures falling from the upper 20s
into the mid teens.
Calm winds.

Thursday
A slight chance of brief light snow showers early in the day.
Cold. Temperatures falling from the upper teens into the single digits late in the day.

Next Update:
Sunday afternoon.


I wrote up a study I've been working on regarding the influences on local winter snowfalls. The study sought to answer the question, "Are earlier-starting winters more significant?"
From those results I am issuing my first winter forecast for Kingston, NY.

38 to 45 inches of snow (about average to slightly above)

60% chance of an average winter (33 to 43 inches),
30% of an above average winter (more than 43 inches),
10% of a below average winter (less than 33 inches)

Roughly 110 days of winter

A daily average snowfall of about 0.4, which is characteristic of a standard winter and more significant than the last two winters

About 8 to 10 snowfall events of at least one inch
I am considering this winter season as having started on November 23rd with the snow showers that coated Kingston, and the subsequent surge of arctic air.

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