Wednesday December 4, 2013

One weekend, Two storms

4:00 P.M. Wednesday December 4, 2013

School Forecast for:
Thursday and Friday
Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

A storm system will move from the Mid-West through the Great Lakes Thursday into Saturday. This system will pass to our west, placing us in its warm sector. As a result, we'll see a bout of rain to end the week. Light snow accumulations will be possible as the system ends late Friday night.

High pressure will build for Saturday into Sunday.

A second system will develop just west of the the Appalachians Monday. This system will bring another round of precipitation, with the possibility of some accumulating snow.

Overcast and mild.
A chance of rain showers throughout the day.
Temperatures rising into the lower 50s.
Light winds.

Cloudy with rain likely throughout the day.
Morning high temperature occurring around midnight,
falling into the mid 30s after sunset.
A mix or change over to light snow
is possible late Friday night.

Morning low around 30 degrees.
Residual snow showers ending before sunrise.
Snow accumulations of up to one inch possible.
Clouds decreasing throughout the day.
Highs in the mid 30s.

Clear with clouds increasing late in the day.
Morning lows in the upper 20s.
Afternoon highs in the mid 30s.
Calm winds.

Snow developing around midnight.
Expect a change over to all rain between 7AM and noon.
Rain showers may linger into the evening.
Morning lows in the lower 30s.
High temperatures in the lower 40s.

Light snow accumulation likely.
Breezy conditions throughout the day.

I will aim for a full update
Saturday Morning.

I wrote up a study I've been working on regarding the influences on local winter snowfalls. The study sought to answer the question, "Are earlier-starting winters more significant?"

From those results I am issuing my first winter forecast for Kingston, NY.

40 to 45 inches of snow (about average to slightly above)

60% chance of an average winter (33 to 43 inches),
30% of an above average winter (more than 43 inches),
10% of a below average winter (less than 33 inches)

Roughly 110 days of winter

A daily average snowfall of about 0.4, which is characteristic of a standard winter and more significant than the last two winters

About 8 to 10 snowfall events of at least one inch

I am considering this winter season as having started on November 23rd with the snow showers that coated Kingston, and the subsequent surge of arctic air.

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