Sunday December 1 2013

Calm start to the week

Updated:
12:00 P.M. Sunday December 1, 2013

School Forecast for:
Monday through Wednesday

Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

Not a whole lot of weather news for this week.

We'll see some clouds early in the week associated mainly with a weak low pressure area moving across the Great Lakes on Monday. Tuesday's clouds will be due, in part, to an off shore coastal low that will affect coastal New England.

By Thursday, a stronger low will trek across the Great Lakes bringing mild air, and a chance of light rain. A second low may develop over Virginia and the Carolinas late in the week, bringing the threat of rain, possibly transitioning to frozen precipitation into the weekend.

Tonight
Dry with continued cloudiness.
A slight chance of some flurries.
Calm winds.

Monday
Overcast, but dry.
Morning lows in the lower 30s.
Afternoon highs in the lower 40s.

Tuesday
Morning clouds, then clearing.
Morning lows in the mid 30s.
Afternoon and evening temperatures in the lower 40s.
Light afternoon winds.

Wednesday
Increasing clouds.
Morning lows in the lower 30's.
Temperatures climbing into the mid 40s.
A slight chance of light rain late in the day.
A light breeze late in the day.

Thursday
Cloudy.
Light rain possible,
mainly during the morning.

Morning lows in the upper 30s.
High temperature in the mid 40s.
Winds increasing to a moderate breeze.

Friday
Increasing clouds.
Rain possible,
possibly mixing with or changing to
light snow during the overnight hours.
Temperatures falling from the upper 30s
to the mid and lower 30s.

I will likely have a mid-week update.


I wrote up a study I've been working on regarding the influences on local winter snowfalls. The study sought to answer the question, "Are earlier-starting winters more significant?"
From those results I am issuing my first winter forecast for Kingston, NY.

40 to 45 inches of snow (about average to slightly above)

60% chance of an average winter (33 to 43 inches),
30% of an above average winter (more than 43 inches),
10% of a below average winter (less than 33 inches)

Roughly 110 days of winter

A daily average snowfall of about 0.4, which is characteristic of a standard winter and more significant than the last two winters

About 8 to 10 snowfall events of at least one inch
I am considering this winter season as having started on November 23rd with the snow showers that coated Kingston, and the subsequent surge of arctic air.

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