December 1, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 011417
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
917 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS…MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
BASEDON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS…MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION ON RADAR IS NOT HITTING THE
GROUND. TRIMMED PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THE REST OF THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SNOW/RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON…ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SPOTTY
FREEZING SPRINKLES STILL EAST OF THE REGION…IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND…AND HEADING EAST. JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER AS WELL THORUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
FOR TONIGHT…THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND EXPECT THAT PCPN WILL PULL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE DECREASING POPS. EXPECT LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE 20S.

MONDAY…LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY DRY AND CLOUDY DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY WASHED OUT ACRS THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY NIGHT…HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
GRIDS AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES FA WITH A WEAK VORT MAX. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACRS THE NW PTN OF FA. LOWS ON MONDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S YO LOWER 30S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…NOW APPEAR DRY AS MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN TAKING COASTAL LOW WELL OUT TO SEA SPARING OUR AREA
FROM ANY PCPN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS ACRS THE WRN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
OVERALL…LONG WAVE TROUGH IS IN WEST AND RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. WITH TIME THE TROUGH BROADENS SOME AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. 01/00Z GFS IS A DAY FASTER AT
EJECTING THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
EAST CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER…BY FRIDAY…01/00Z ECMWF IS DEEPER
AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX NEAR JAMES BAY.
SATURDAY…ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS DEEPER…FURTHER EAST VORTEX.

AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES…MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE ON THURSDAY.
GFS PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND
DRIES THINGS OUT WHILE ECMWF DELAYS COLD FRONT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS THEN MOVE A SERIES OF WAVES UP ALONG FRONT PROVIDING FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES AN ISSUE AS COLDER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS INTO AREA AND UNDER CUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO A WINTER TYPE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY TURNS WINTRY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO END
OVER SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA ON SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY…FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
ALBANY FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. A
COLD FRONT NORTHWEST WITH A WAVE ON IT OVER MICHIGAN…AND A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

FOR TODAY…COASTAL SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS AT
KPSF THROUGH THE DAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVERHEAD AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
MOST SITES…ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER
FOR KGFL AND KPSF.

SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AN
VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEW RUNS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SFC WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND
KALB THIS EVENING…BUT REMAINING LIGHT.

OUTLOOK…
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA…FZRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO RELATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AND THE TREND WILL BE FOR FLOWS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11/NAS
NEAR TERM…11/NAS
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…SND
AVIATION…SND
HYDROLOGY…11

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