Wednesday November 27, 2013

Cold, dry end to the week

5:00 P.M. Wednesday November 27, 2013

School Forecast for:
Thursday and Friday

Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

As the storm continues to clear the region, we will now begin to see a change over from light rain to light frozen precipitation. Expect light rain to begin to mix with sleet as the evening progresses. A coating or so of snow and sleet is possible.

Black ice will be a concern tonight into tomorrow morning as temperatures fall into the 20's.

Light rain mixing with sleet,
before tapering off by midnight.
Temperatures falling to around 20 degrees.
Light accumulations possible.
Very breezy.

Clear skies.
Some clouds during the evening.
Breezy, especially in the morning.
High temperatures in the upper 20's.

Clouds during the morning,
then clearing during the afternoon.

Morning lows in the lower 20's.
Highs in the upper 20's.
Calm winds.

Sunny skies.
Clouds increasing during the evening.
Morning lows in the mid 20's.
High temperatures in the lower 30's.
Light winds.

Mostly cloudy,
especially in the morning and evening.
A chance of light snow late in the evening.
Morning lows in the lower 30's.
High temperatures in the mid-30's.
Light winds during the morning.

This past weekend, I wrote up a study I've been working on regarding the influences on local winter snowfalls. The study sought to answer the question, "Are earlier-starting winters more significant?"
From those results I am issuing my first winter forecast for Kingston, NY.

40 to 45 inches of snow (about average to slightly above)

60% chance of an average winter (33 to 43 inches),
30% of an above average winter (more than 43 inches),
10% of a below average winter (less than 33 inches)

Roughly 110 days of winter

A daily average snowfall of about 0.4, which is characteristic of a standard winter and more significant than the last two winters

About 8 to 10 snowfall events of at least one inch
I am considering this winter season as having started on November 23rd with the snow showers that coated Kingston, and the subsequent surge of arctic air.

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