Monday November 25, 2013

Rainstorm, and winter outlook

Updated:
8:30 P.M. Monday November 25, 2013

School Forecast for:
Tuesday November 26th
Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
30% 0% 0%

8:30PM Update

There is now a 40% chance of light snow developing for several hours prior to daybreak. This batch will be ahead of the main system, which will bring rain later in the day tomorrow. There is the potential for a dusting to half an inch of snow accumulation tomorrow morning. Have opted to go with 30% probabilities on the delay, mainly due to the timing, which would be between 3AM and 9AM. Though it isn't necessarily most likely, if we were to see close to half an inch of accumulation, most of it would be by daybreak.

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6:00PM Update

A coastal storm is currently pulling itself together across the southeastern states. This system will affect us late Tuesday into Wednesday with significant rainfall. Snowfall with this system should not affect the Mid-Hudson Valley.

Tuesday
Rain developing late in the afternoon.
A period of light snow possible at the onset of the storm.
Little, if any, snow accumulation.
Morning temperatures in the mid 20s,
rising into the upper 30's by the evening.

Wednesday
Rain, heavy in the morning.
Up to two inches of rainfall possible.
Rain will taper off during the evening.
High temperatures making it to around 50 degrees.
Residual snow showers possible Wednesday night.
Little, if any, accumulation.

Thursday and Friday
Mostly clear skies.
Highs in the lower 30's.
Overnight lows around 20.

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This past weekend, I wrote up a study I've been working on regarding the influences on local winter snowfalls. The study sought to answer the question, "Are earlier-starting winters more significant?"

From those results I am issuing my first winter forecast for Kingston, NY.

40 to 45 inches of snow (about average to slightly above)

60% chance of an average winter (33 to 43 inches),
30% of an above average winter (more than 43 inches),
10% of a below average winter (less than 33 inches)

Roughly 110 days of winter

A daily average snowfall of about 0.4, which is characteristic of a standard winter and more significant than the last two winters

About 8 to 10 snowfall events of at least one inch

I am considering this winter season as having started on November 23rd with the snow showers that coated Kingston, and the subsequent surge of arctic air.

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