Thursday November 7, 2013

Kingston Snows

Potential mid-November Storm?

Updated:
7:00 P.M. Thursday November 7th, 2013

School Forecast for:
Friday November 8th, 2013

Two Hour Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
0% 0% 0%

Regarding potential storm for next week:

The two main models when it comes to snowfall are the EURO and the GFS.

The EURO:

The EURO is currently suggesting a fairly significant snow storm across the area with up to 10 inches across the MHV. As of right now, the EURO has not been very consistent.

On Tuesday it showed a big snowfall across the interior Northeast with coastal rains (including the Hudson Valley). Yesterday it stopped indicating the storm completely. Today it is back on board with a significant snowfall, this time across most of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Consistently, the EURO has only been showing this storm for two runs (since last night), which isn't that long.

The GFS:

The GFS does not depict a storm impacting our area. Instead it shows a much weaker system well off the coast. However, the GFS is a conglomerate of other models, some of which do suggest a moderate storm impacting parts of the northeast.

Interpretation:

Based on the two runs from the EURO and that some of the GFS-conglomerate models are depicting a storm scenario, the storm threat for next week is valid, but by no means a definite.

If said storm is to happen, we'd need to see the EURO build more consistency and continue to depict the storm through the weekend on all of its future runs. We would also want to see the GFS start to come on board by the end of the weekend.

The fact that there's been some agreement between the models so far, warrants about a 30% concern at this time. This 30% means that this storm is possible, but by no means certain. The best course of action would be to monitor the situation heading into the weekend. Odds go up if we continue to see support and increased agreement heading into and through the weekend.

As far as potential impacts:

Timing between Wednesday and Saturday morning, with Thursday-Friday most likely. The snow-rain ratio is still uncertain, but IF this were to materialize, and IF it were to be mainly snow, I would anticipate potential totals in the 4 to 8 inch range, not unlike the October 29, 2011 snow that dropped 5.7 inches on Kingston.

Also keep in mind that even if a strong storm does form, it does not necessarily mean it will affect our region. . . its main affects may stay to our south or east. If it does affect our region, it may be as rain or snow… simply too early to tell.

Next Update:

Monday November 11th

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