000
FXUS61 KALY 020015
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
815 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS…
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT…ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATER TONIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 445 PM EDT…THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED SCATTERED AROUND
OUR REGION…WITH HEAVIER RAIN FALLING TO WELL OUR SOUTH…CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET.
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER
CENTRAL NY STATE…ENTERING INTO HERKIMER COUNTY…MOVING EAST
AROUND 30 MPH.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS…MOSTLY
LIGHT. HOWEVER A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY CLOSE TO
70 DEGREES. A BRISK SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH…GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HUDSON VALLEY.
IF THE LINE OF SHOWERS TO OUR WEST HOLDS UP…IT WILL CROSS OUR
REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 530-830 PM. THIS LINE IS AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED WILL WORK IN
BEHIND THE SHOWERS…NOT CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT…THE WIND WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE WEST
BUT IT MIGHT TAKE A LITTLE WHILE BEFORE CLEARING COMMENCES…PERHAPS
NOT UNTIL DAYBREAK. WENT WITH OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE REGARDING OVERNIGHT LOWS…WHICH LOOK TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY…LOWER TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
BY FRIDAY…HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN THE FROM
WEST…USHERING ANOTHER COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS. IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH…GUSTING TO 25
MPH OR BETTER IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY/HIGHER
TERRAIN AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD…BRINGING COOL
AIR ALOFT WITH H500 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO ABOUT -16C TO THE
NORTH. THE WNW FLOW WILL ACTUALLY INDUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD APPROACH A
SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 500 JOULES. ALL THESE FACTORS COULD SPAWN A
FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE ADIRONDACK PARK AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE…WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY.
WET BUILD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 8000 FEET WHICH COULD
GENERATE SOME SMALL HAIL AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OR TWO. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY…70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT AN EVEN COOLER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. BOTH THE LATEST NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF
A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS AREAS FROM
I-90 SOUTH. THIS RAIN APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR COMING
OFF LAKE ERIE (LAKE EFFECT)…A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH.
BELIEVE BOTH MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDOING IT A LITTLE ON THE QPF BUT
DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO 30-40 ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE GENERALLY 55 TO AROUND 60.
SATURDAY…WE CONTINUE IN A BRISK WNW FLOW. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER
VERY WEAK SHORT WORKING MAINLY NORTH…BUT SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS…SLIGHT POPS MOST OTHER PLACES SINCE THE AIR WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL TO ABOUT +10C OVER THE CAPITAL REGION…EVEN A BIT
COOLER NORTH. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE…HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK MAINLY CONFINED TO THE 70S…WITH SOME OF THE OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS AND CATSKILLS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ONE AGAIN WITH A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
SOME CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL BREEZE MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING EXCESSIVELY COOL SATURDAY NIGHT…WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EVERYWHERE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
ON SUNDAY YET ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WORKS AROUND THE TROUGH
SHARPENING AND DEEPENING IT MORE. ONCE AGAIN…THIS FEATURE WILL
IMPACT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS…ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL
AGAIN…RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH…TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE EXTENDED PERIOD KICKS OFF ON A DRY NOTE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING TUESDAY…WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT…CONDITIONS WILL TURN
DRY AGAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER
70S RANGE…WITH THE OVERALL TREND BEING TOWARD SLIGHTLY MILDER
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S…RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
TONIGHT…ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY LATER TONIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU
TAF SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. MVFR TO POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT DUE TO SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT…THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG LATER TONIGHT…EXPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF.
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
SOUTH WINDS AT 5-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AT 5 TO 10 KTS…AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF AND KPOU. ON FRIDAY THE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUST OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK…
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA…TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA…TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT…ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH MANY AREAS NOT RECEIVING
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN SOME AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY WITH A WEST WIND 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. LIGHT
BREEZE COULD PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT AND BECOME BRISK AGAIN SATURDAY.
WE WILL HAVE INTERVALS OF BOTH SUNSHINE AND PATCHY CLOUDINESS.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN THE
AFTERNOONS…GENERALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO REAL HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN…ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR REGION…ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OR LESS IN MOST PLACES…MAYBE UP TO HALF AN INCH OVER ACTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS EAST TO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE OR NO RESPONSES ON THE MAIN WATER SHEDS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE
POINT…QPF ON SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE…AMOUNTS WILL LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM…GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…GJM
FIRE WEATHER…HWJIV
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV
