March 25, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 251137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION…ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
MAY BRUSH FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH MID WEEK…LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION…WITH CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 633 AM EDT…AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST. DURING THE DAY TODAY…THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
INTENSITY…BUT WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT…THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
OUR REGION. THE 06Z NAM KEEPS OUR AREA COMPLETELY DRY…WHILE THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WILL JUST A
HUNDREDTH OR SO OF QPF. OUR LOCAL 00Z HIRES WRF AND THE 07Z 3KM
HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA…AND JUST OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEING
BRUSHED BY STEADY PRECIP. AS A RESULT…WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC/LOW CHC POPS…MAINLY FOR THIS AFTN…FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
AREAS. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE TO PRECIP TO BE LOST TO VIRGA AS WELL. SINCE PRECIP
WILL BE VERY LIGHT…BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY WARM UP ENOUGH DUE
TO THE STRONG MARCH SUN FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN…DESPITE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT/LOW THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY
STAY AS SNOW…BUT WITH PRECIP FALLING DURING THE DAY…AND VERY
LIMITED QPF…ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST A
DUSTING.

WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDY DAY REGION WIDE. WHILE WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST…IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL OCCUR. IN ADDITION…WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS…ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS LAST WEEK…WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS…AND UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN ADDITION…A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
HIGH AND DEVELOPING STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY E-NE WINDS…MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE REGION. A FEW GUSTS IN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY MAY EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN. WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STORM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY AND
DAYTIME MIXING ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
IT APPEARS THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA…THE STORM/S 500 HPA LOW WILL GET PULLED INTO A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
STILL AND SPIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS…KEEPING A
CHILLY NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS…ESP IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO…WHERE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 20S…ALTHOUGH NOT AS
COOL AS THEY COULD BE…DUE TO CLOUDS AND A LINGERING BREEZE. MAX
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. IT LOOKS
MAINLY DRY…ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTN. MIN
TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MAINLY IN THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.

A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WED
NIGHT…ESP FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. ANY QPF WOULD BE
RATHER LIGHT…AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE
HIGH TERRAIN…AND MAINLY ONLY A COATING. TEMPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUE/TUE NIGHT VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE…RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

SOME RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BUILD IN BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OFF THE COAST. THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF MARCH ARE…
ALBANY: HIGHS…LOWER 50S. LOWS…LOWER 30S.
GLENS FALLS: HIGHS…UPPER 40S. LOWS…UPPER 20S.
POUGHKEEPSIE: HIGHS…MID 50S. LOWS…LOWER 30S.
BENNINGTON: HIGHS…AROUND 50. LOWS…UPPER 20S.
PITTSFIELD: HIGHS…UPPER 40S. LOWS…UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST OVERNIGHT
AND PASS TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL…KALB AND KPSF INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER AT KPOU…MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A PERIOD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. AT THIS TIME
EXPECTED THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM TO REMAIN JUST
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE A VICINITY SHOWER
IN THE TAF DURING THE PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES ARE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE. OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR MVFR CIGS…HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH SCATTERED 2500 FOOT CLOUDS
IN TAFS.

NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO ABOUT 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS
THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK…
TUE…VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED…VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN/SHRA. GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
THU…VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN/SHRA.
FRI…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOWLY MELT IN THE VALLEY AREAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW
COVERED OR WET FUELS WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION. EVEN IF THESE AREAS RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION…QPF IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY…BUT QPF WILL BE VERY LIMITED…ABOUT A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

A SNOW PACK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. VALLEY AREAS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A SMALL SNOW PACK AS WELL. RIVER STAGES WILL SEE
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO DAY TIME SNOW MELT AND NIGHT TIME FREEZE
UP OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR SPECIFIC RIVER AND LAKE FORECASTS…PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…FRUGIS
NEAR TERM…FRUGIS
SHORT TERM…FRUGIS
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…IAA
FIRE WEATHER…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…FRUGIS

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