March 24, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 241016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A STORM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
DELMARVA MONDAY. IT WILL GLANCE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AS THE STORM SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC.
AS A RESULT OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN A BRISK CHILLY NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE…WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
OR RAIN SHOWERS MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/…
AS OF 600AM CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS FCA BASED ON
SFC OBS AND 11-3.9U SAT IMAGERY. TEMPS ARE ALSO 5 OR SO DEG F ABV
FCST..SO HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE MORNING HRS IN
GRIDS. OTRW NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE.

TODAY…EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
TEMPS FINALLY REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT…SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY ALTHOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM
THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

MONDAY…LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA FROM THE DOUBLE
BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE PRIMARY LOW WEAKENS OVER THE OH
VLY AND TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON MONDAY
WITH QPF AMOUNTS LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF AT BEST
AS THE SECONDARY LOW THEN TAKES AN EAST NORTHEAST TRACK. EXPECT
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
WIDESPREAD (GFS/ECMWF/GEM) AGREEMENT WITH MDL SUITE FOR THIS
PERIOD. THE STORM SLIDES GRADUALLY OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
LEAVES FCA IN RATHER SIGNIFICANT SFC WIND GRADIENT OF A CHILLY NW
FLOW.

AT 500HPA THE PERSISTENT OMEGA/GREENLAND BLOCK BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST. ONE OF ITS CUTOFFS REMAINS PIVOTING ACROSS THE NE
USA…AS SHORT WVS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND IT. THE
COMBINATION OF PASSING 500HPA TROFS…PERSISTENT NW
FLOW…STEEPENING DAYTIME LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO MARCH
SUN…(WHAT LITTLE THERE IS) WILL RESULT IN RAPID CU
FORMATION…SOME LK ENHANCEMENT…BOUTS OF -SHSN/-SHRA..LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND TEMPS WELL BLO NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THE 500HPA CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND FINALLY DEPARTS IN THE
EFP. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED…BANANA LIKE FM ONTARIO TO UPR
GRT PLAINS TO FLORIDA THU. PERIOD STARTS WITH BRISK NW FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE THUR…AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LLVL MOISTURE AND SAME
SCENARIO AS PVS FEW DAYS WITH SCT -SHRA/SHSN.

FRI THE SFC HIGH CENTER REACHES TO OHIO VLY…WIND GRADIENT
RELAXES…AND DRIER AIR MIXES INTO FCA. SFC HI SLIDES TO EASTERN SEABOARD
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW AT 500HPA. DRY FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY…HWVR BY END OF PERIOD (EASTER
SUNDAY) MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A CDFNT THAT WILL APPROACH
FCA WITH INCR CLOUDS AND CHC -SHRA. ECMWF/GFS HOLDS THIS OFF TILL
SUN NT…HPC OVERNIGHT/GEM BRINGS THIS THRU SAT NT. GFS BRINGS
MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS FOR THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHER GUID. WILL
POPULATE EFP WITH HPC…BUT IN LIGHT OF NEW ECMWF WILL HOLD POPS
TO SLIGHT CHC SUN. TEMPS WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NR NORMALS DURING
THE EFP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z MONDAY…AND THE
WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER TODAY DURING THE DAY WITH A WEAK SFC
HIGH TRYING TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY. GENERALLY EXPECT SCT-BKN
STRATOCUMULUS TODAY IN THE 4.5-6 KFT AGL RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 7-12 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK…
MON-MON NIGHT…VFR/MVFR. CHC LIGHT SNOW KPOU. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN
KALB/KPSF/KGFL.
TUE-THU…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOWLY MELT IN THE VALLEY AREAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A STORM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF
DELMARVA MONDAY. IT WILL GLANCE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NATIONS MID SECTION AS THE STORM SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FORECAST LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME IS 0.10 INCH OR
LESS. RIVER STAGES WILL SEE MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO DAY TIME
SNOW MELT AND NIGHT TIME FREEZE UP OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR SPECIFIC RIVER AND LAKE FORECASTS…PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…11/SNYDER
SHORT TERM…SNYDER
LONG TERM…SNYDER
AVIATION…11/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER…11
HYDROLOGY…SND/11

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