March 23, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 231435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1035 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND…HOWEVER ITS AFFECTS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES…BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
TO THE SOUTH OF REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING SOME RAIN AND
SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 1015 AM…SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD AND LITTLE ACTIVITY SHOWN ON KTYX
RADAR OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…SO HAVE DECREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. POPS STILL ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTN AND EVE AS UPSLOPE/CYCLONIC
FLOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THAT REGION.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…
AS OF 630 AM EDT…MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA ALONG
WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

TODAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE DAY OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL PULL BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST IN COVERAGE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES SUCH THAT BY LATE TODAY ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH HAS BEEN CONTROLLING OUR WEATHER FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS FINALLY MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE…BUT IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AS STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS…GUSTING OVER 30 MPH IN MANY AREAS…WILL MAKE IT
FEEL COOLER THAN TE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THERE WILL BE SOME SUN
IN THE VALLEYS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE CLOSE THE MET GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/…
TONIGHT…EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS…EXCEPT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO MID 20S
SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY…A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS FINALLY
REBOUNDING SOME. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST
TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN SHIELD WILL EXTEND
FROM A DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BY SUNDAY NIGHT
STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE PCPN SHIELD AMONGST MOST
OF THE MODELS WITH THIS MODEL CYCLE…HOWEVER THE NAM APPEARS TO
BE THE OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS TRACKING THE SECONDARY
LOW TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE A
SHIFT IN ENERGY FROM THE PRIMARY LOW TO THE SECONDARY LOW ON
MONDAY WITH THE SECONDARY LOW THEN TAKING A EAST NORTHEAST TRACK.
THE NAM IS FARTHEST NORTH AND GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH WITH GFS AND
ECMWF BEING VERY CLOSE IN TRACK AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AND HAVE
CHOSEN TO GO THIS ROUTE FOR NOW. FOR THE HWO WILL SPLIT OUT THE
SRN THREE COUNTIES WHERE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
TO FALL FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. QPF AMTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90…EXCEPT A TENTH TO A LITTLE OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACRS
ULSTER…DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WHICH WILL EQUATE TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO
BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER BENIGN…WITH MAINLY DRY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FAVORED AREAS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT…WHERE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
PASSING DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO PASS THROUGH IN THE LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WHICH MAY NOT BE PICKED UP BY THE MODELS AT
THIS TIME…BUT THIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN
THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE ANTICYCLONIC INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL…ALTHOUGH LIKELY
NOT AS COLD AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME PERSISTING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AND MAINLY BKN-OVC CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
06Z SUNDAY. INITIALLY…CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE IN MVFR RANGE
AT KALB OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING…AND ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGFL/KPOU. A FEW UPSLOPE -SHSN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KPSF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR RANGE AFTER SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS…BUT
WITH A MAINLY BKN STRATOCU DECK REMAINING. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT…ESPECIALLY AT
KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK…
SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON-MON NIGHT…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SN AT KPOU/KPSF. SLIGHT CHC -SN AT
KALB/KGFL.
TUE-WED…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL SLOWLY MELT IN THE VALLEY AREAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES…MAINLY ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN VALLEY AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS…HOWEVER TEMPS SHOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING AT
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLOW MELTING OF SNOW. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH
SOME MINOR RISES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM/IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM…GJM/11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…JPV
FIRE WEATHER…11
HYDROLOGY…11

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License