March 19, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 192354
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
754 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
AS A DEVELOPING STORM MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK…WITH HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE BERKSHIRES WAS CANCELLED. THE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 11 PM FOR THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION…WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AS SNOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS IN EFFECT FOR
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
SQUALLS.

AS OF 430 PM…THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE LINGERING EFFECTS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY
PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY ARE SHOWN ON RADAR WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS EVENING…BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM THIS POINT SINCE DAYTIME
HEATING IS DIMINISHING. OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND
HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT POPS RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTH…AND THESE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT…EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH. THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT WILL BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 6 TO 12 INCHES THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

UNSEASONABLY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY…LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S AGAIN ON THURSDAY…AND LOWS 10 TO 20
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
HPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WE START OFF FEELING THE LAST REMNANTS OF TODAY`S COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM AS IT STRUGGLES ON UP THROUGH MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND ROTATES A SERIES OF TROFS THROUGH OUR REGION. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SLOW AS IT HEADS OVER OUR REGION
BY SUNDAY…PROVIDING…BY THEN…HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING TO THE MID 40S. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF COAST…HEAD UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…
AND TURN OUT TO SEA OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON MONDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT THEN BECOMES PART OF THE MAIN LOW
OFF THE COAST.

INITIALLY…THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO EVOLVE VERY SIMILARLY TO TODAY/S
SYSTEM…BUT THEN THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AND EVERYTHING SHIFTS
OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY. INDEED…THE ECMWF GIVES US NO
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF. THE LATEST GFS HAS THROWN IN A
MONKEY WRENCH BY KEEPING THE CUTOFF GOING AS IT COMBINES WITH THE
MAIN LOW AND THE ENTIRE THINGS LIFTS UP THROUGH OUR REGION. TO
BELIEVE THIS SOLUTION IS TO BELIEVE WE/LL HAVE A SNOW EVENT AT LEAST
AS SIGNIFICANT AS TODAY/S.

FOR RIGHT NOW…CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. WILL THIS THING EVEN
EVOLVE 7 DAYS OUT? WE COULD JUST AS EASILY BE LEFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITTING ON TOP OF US. THE ISSUE INITIALLY IS /IF/… AND
EVEN ONCE THAT IS SATISFIED…WE HAVE THE ISSUES OF TIMING…
INTENSIFICATION…TRACK AND THE VARIOUS MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT MAY
STILL EXIST TO CONTEND WITH. THE GREATEST POPS WE HAVE RIGHT NOW IS
SLGT CHC…WITH OUR NEIGHBORS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
THE DOUBLE-BARREL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREA WITH
BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION…MAINLY SNOW. THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE COASTAL LOW OVER CAPE
COD SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
THE COASTAL LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ON WEDNESDAY…THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD AS ITS DRAWN
UNDER THE UPPER LOW.

SNOW ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. A BAND OF
SHOWERS…MAINLY SNOW…WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. HAVE TRIED TO TIME THESE SHOWERS
IMPACT IN THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT VFR AT KPOU. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING…THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THEN INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S DURING THE MUCH OF
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK…
WED-FRI…MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
SAT-SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

AS A DEVELOPING STORM MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK…WITH HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED ON AREA STREAM AND RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA…NONE.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…IAA
FIRE WEATHER…GJM
HYDROLOGY…GJM/BGM

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