March 18, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 182343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM…WE WILL REMAIN IN
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/…
AS OF 743 PM EDT…MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WEATHER
THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. SNOW IS DEVELOPING A BIT FASTER…SO SPED UP TIMING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALREADY SNOWING SNOW FROM ABOUT A LINE FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING…INCLUDING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. ALSO ADDED
MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE FORECAST WORDING FOR TONIGHT.

ONCE THE SNOW COMMENCES IT WILL COME DOWN HARD FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS THE INITIAL BURST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCES SNOWFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS AN INCH TO POSSIBLE 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS
INITIAL BURST OF PCPN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MOST OF THE SNOWFALL FOR
THIS EVENT WITH 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THE MORNING
COMMUTE. TOWARD SUNRISE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL WARM AND THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A CHANGEOVER TO
MIXED PCPN (SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) AND POSSIBLY TO ALL RAIN IN
VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. FROM ALBANY NORTH EXPECT PCPN TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW…BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE AREAS IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT COULD GET SOME SLEET. SOME MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD GET LITTLE OR NO PCPN AFTER 18Z…BUT HAVE OPTED TO FORECAST
HIGH POPS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON…THEN
TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE SOUTH.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS GREENE…COLUMBIA…BERKSHIRE…ULSTER
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS…AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
NORTH…EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 8 TO 15 ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30. HIGHS TUESDAY 30 TO 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY…THE DEVELOPING STORM JUST OFF THE
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY CONTINUE TO THROW MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TOWARD LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT
WHERE PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THERE.
WE WILL EVALUATE THIS FURTHER ONCE THE MAIN STORM IMPACTS ARE EAST
OF THE REGION. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS…LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

UNSEASONABLY CHILLY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 30 TO 40…AND LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 10 TO AROUND 20.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY…WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE CUTOFF TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE STALLED UPPER
LOW WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
OF CANADA WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY…HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON
THURSDAY AND LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY…THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL MODERATE WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR THE
WEEKEND. 12Z MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOW A POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FROM A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN A BROAD MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TRACK AND MANY DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS ARE BEING SHOWN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND
WILL BE BETTER PROJECTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPOU/KPSF/KALB…AND WILL BEGIN
SHORTLY AT KGFL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THROUGH IFR
RANGE WITH BORDERLINE LIFR VSBYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES…AND WILL THEN MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN AT KPOU AFTER 05Z. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARM ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN AT KPOU AROUND OR AFTER 10Z. KGFL WILL REMAIN
ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT…WHILE KALB MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIX IN
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE SNOW WILL PREVAIL. A
BETTER CHANCE OF A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT KPSF LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING…BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY…WITH
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF THE TIME. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 5-10…BECOMING NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK…
TUE NIGHT-SAT…VFR/MVFR. BREEZY. CHC -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM…WE WILL REMAIN IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT
IT WILL FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL BE MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…LFM
AVIATION…JPV
FIRE WEATHER…GJM
HYDROLOGY…GJM

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