March 4, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 042134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND AND MAY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN OUR DOMINATE WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE EASTWARD AND
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. HOWEVER…A PIECE OF ENERGY IS ROTATING
ABOUT THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. SNOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT IS RESPONSE. THE HRRR-3KM HANDLES THIS WELL
AND SHOWS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING.
HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
ADDRESS. HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS SOME RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESS. THE BRISK AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. EXPECTING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MAY GRAZE THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD…FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY…THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS/GEFS MEMBERS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR MORE OF A NORTHERN TRACK WITH A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE…THE LATEST ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE FAVORS
MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM…KEEPING IT WELL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE QUESTION REMAINS TO BE THE RELATIVE LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER…SOMEWHERE
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DOMINATE…FAVORING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM AND THUS RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FAILS TO GET CAPTURED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND
PULLED NORTHWARD…AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. WILL CURRENTLY FAVOR THE HPC
SOLUTION…WHICH FAVORS A TRACK SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE BEING
THROWN NORTHWARD FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY-MONDAY…AS THE MID-ATLANTIC STORM EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST…MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD…ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. HAVE INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY…BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID TO
UPPER 40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS…WITH LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT POSSIBLY CRACKING 50F TO START THE WORK WEEK.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 30S IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY VFR AT KPOU DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. ELSEWHERE…CIGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
22Z/MON AND 04Z/TUE AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD CREATE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF BUT BECAUSE OF QUESTIONABLE
COVERAGE…JUST INCLUDING VCSH.

LIGHT WINDS AT KGFL SUGGESTS CONTINUING THE LLWS AT LEAST PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT…WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 25-30 KT AT KALB AND KPSF DUE TO SOME ENHANCEMENT
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION…WITH 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z…THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK…
WED…VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW/RAIN.
WED NIGHT…VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW
THU…VFR/MVFR. CHC SNOW/RAIN.
FRI…VFR. SLIGHT CHC SNOW/RAIN.
SAT…VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MID WEEK
AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A TREND
A BIT FARTHER NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW…SO NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…IAA
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…IRL
AVIATION…NAS
HYDROLOGY…IAA

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