February 16, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 161449
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE OCEAN STORM LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS STORM MIGHT BRUSH AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW…BUT A BIGGER IMPACT OF THE
STORM WILL BE TO BRING A SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 949 AM…MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW PRECIP-FREE EXCEPT FOR A
VERY SMALL AREA OF EASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING. HELD ON TO CHANCE POPS THERE FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS…OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH WITH
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA…WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND WEST. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY…RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY…CLOSER TO 30 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION…CATSKILLS
AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD AND THE BERKSHIRES…MID TO UPPER 20S WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE COMBINED PIECES OF ENERGY MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
CONSOLIDATE ALONG A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC TO FORM A LARGE OCEAN
STORM TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES…ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST…IT WILL CAPTURE THIS
FEATURE OFF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE RAPID
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES/EUROPEAN AND EVEN CANADIAN MODELS ALL INDICATE
THAT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM WILL MOSTLY MISS US. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER…LIGHT SNOW MIGHT BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. ON
SUNDAY…SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT TAKE PLACE IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER AIR LOW WORK ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH
IT WILL BE REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE OCEAN STORM WILL IMPACT US BY DRIVING A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR MASS OUR WAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH FAIRLY
STRONG WIND FROM NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND
TEMPERATURES HEADING FOR AROUND ZERO (OR EVEN A LITTLE) MIGHT
PRODUCE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TEMPERATURES EQUIVALENT OF -20 TO -29
ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOR
NOW…WILL MENTION THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).

THE STORM IS PREDICTED TO BE SLOW TO EXIT…AND THE WINDS MAY
DIMINISH ONLY GRADUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AGAIN…THERE MAY
BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES IN SOME AREAS…ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS…AROUND OR
JUST BELOW ZERO IN COLDER AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S…LOWER 20S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/…
MONDAY NIGHT…A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION…WHICH SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS…WITH
DECREASING WIND. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE AT
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT…WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS…AND THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

TUE-TUE NT…MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPS
WILL WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. DESPITE THE WARM-UP…PCPN COULD START AS SNOW…
EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN OR MIXED PCPN. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH…ANY LEFTOVER PCPN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. POPS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTN…WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

WED-THU NT…AS THE REMNANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
REGION WED AND WED EVENING…THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION…WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS TRADITIONALLY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…MOHAWK VALLEY…AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE WED NT…FOLLOWED BY
FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THU NT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. HIGHS WED WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS WED NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS THURSDAY 20 TO 30. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

FRI…GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WEAKENING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
AS OF 615 AM…SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. AS A RESULT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY. EVEN
WHEN A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OFF THE
EAST COAST…EXPECT ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO REMAIN TO THE
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH IN THE KPSF TAF AFTER
08Z TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 8 KTS THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING…THEN INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 KTS BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. THESE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL EVEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK…
SUN-MON NT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE…MVFR/IFR TUE WITH MIXED PCPN.
TUE NITE-WED…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOW MELT
WILL SLOW AS TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BE CLOSER TO FREEZING…WELL
BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THEREBY ENDING THE SNOWMELT ALL
TOGETHER.

THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE TODAY INTO THE MID WEEK WILL BE SNOW. THE
SYSTEMS DURING THAT TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS. THEREFORE…NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE ALY HSA
WATERWAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…GJM
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV/NAS

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