February 13, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 132130
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING…PASSING WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW MIGHT BRUSH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO
MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY INTO OUR REGION WITH
MORE LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 330 PM…MUCH OF THE REGION ENJOYING SOME SUNSHINE. THERE
STILL SOME STUBBORN CLOUDS FROM ABOUT A OLD FORGE/GLENS FALLS AND
BENNINGTON LINE NORTHWARD BUT THESE WERE SHRINKING. MORE HIGHER
CLOUDS WERE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM A
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

RADARS STILL INDICATED A FEW SNOW FLURRIES COULD FLYING ABOUT IN
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY BUT THE TREND WAS FOR THESE TO END SOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON…LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS…SUNNY FROM
SARATOGA SPRINGS SOUTHWARD…EXCEPT SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND HIGH
CLOUDS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR…AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH…LOWER TO MID 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN AND WELL NORTH OF ALBANY. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

3HR PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WERE
LOWEST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE STORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA WILL REFORM OVER THE DELMARVA AND THEN SHOULD TRACK EAST
OFF THE COAST. ASSUMING THIS TRACK WORKS OUT PRECIPITATION WILL
BARELY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS IF AT ALL. PART OF THE PROBLEM IS
THAT THERE IS SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS EVIDENT BY SATELLITE PICTURES. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES…SLIGHT CHANCES
TO ABOUT KINGSTON…DRY FURTHER NORTH WHERE A CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL
BLOT OUT THE STARS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT. LATER TONIGHT
HOWEVER…MOST PLACES (EVEN SOUTH) SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING CLOUDS
ONCE AGAIN.

ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE A COATING TO AN INCH WELL SOUTH OF KINGSTON
TONIGHT.

WITH THE CLEARING SKY SOUTH AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY MOST
OTHER PLACES…WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE AND IN A FEW CASES…A
POINT OR TWO BELOW. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S (EXCEPT TEENS
NORTH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD SO THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 40 OR BETTER FROM ABOUT SARATOGA SPRING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY…MID 40S CLOSE TO POUGHKEEPSIE
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL BE IN
THE 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES
(EVIDENT OVER NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY)…CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND SO WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK SHORT
WAVE WILL APPROACH BY LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH OF FRIDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS
DRY…EXCEPT FOR THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED…POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY IN THE HEIGHT
OF THE DAY. AGAIN…ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE ASSIGNED
TO MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE IT WOULD BE MILD
ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GET A BUMP UPWARD DUE TO AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ABOUT GLENS FALLS SOUTHWARD…MID TO UPPER 30S ADIRONDACKS AND THE
HIGHEST PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

THEN…A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OF MOSTLY SNOW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
MODIFIED SHOT OF CHILLY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR FOR SATURDAY. LOWS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 20S (TEENS ADIRONDACKS). IT WILL
TURN BLUSTERY ON SATURDAY WITH MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER BACK INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
VALLEYS…HOLDING IN THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS UP ON A RELATIVELY DRY NOTE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT SLIDES EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY HEADS OUT TO SEA….AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES IN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THE
WORK WEEK. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON MONDAY… THEN TURN EAST…SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR A MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY…ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE MINIMAL.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON SUNDAY…MID 20S TO
UPPER 30S ON MONDAY…30S AND LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY…AND LOWER 20S
TO MID 30S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS…TO ABOUT THE MID TEENS DOWN
THE HUDSON VALLEY…WITH READINGS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. READINGS WILL REBOUND TO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS…TO THE LOWER 20S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY…WITH FURTHER MODERATION TUESDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE NORMAL ALBANY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
FEBRUARY 18TH ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UPPER TEENS…RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
NO AVIATION PROBLEMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES.

THE CLOUD DECK HAS FINALLY ERODED AT ALL BUT KGFL. EVEN THERE…THE
CIGS WERE WELL ABOVE THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD AND WILL STAY THAT WAY.
EVENTUALLY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED.

WE STILL BELIEVE THERE IS AN EVEN CHANCE OR A LITTLE BETTER OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING KPOU…BUT AT WORST…IT LOOKS TO DROP
CONDITIONS TO HIGH END MVFR.

THE OTHER TAFS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH VFR. ANY CIGS SHOULD BE WELL
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES COME FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK…
THU NIGHT…VFR. SCHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
FRI…MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN/-SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT…MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHSN.
SUN…MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
MON…VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ANY
SNOW MELT WILL BE GRADUAL AND DIURNAL WITH ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WITH BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT.

SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
MORE LIGHT SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES PASSES TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND…IT APPEARS A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
WELL TO OUR SOUTH…ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION IS VERY LOW …IT IS NOT ZERO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…HWJIV
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…GJM
HYDROLOGY…IAA/HWJIV

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