February 1, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 011141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TODAY…IT WILL BE COLD AND WINDY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE WIND AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW…ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 600 AM…PREVIOUS FORECAST GRINDS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS IN ORDER TO KEEP THEM
CURRENT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…
AS OF 430 AM…THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND HAD JUST ABOUT SHIFTED OUT
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AREA (NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES)…SO CANCELLED THE ADVISORY A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE THE ORIGINAL 6 AM EXPIRATION TIME.

THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND WAS MAINLY OVER GREENE COUNTY AND ALSO
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD.

THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE ALY FORECAST
AREA BY 800 AM…WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND ALSO SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT…IT
WILL NOT LINGER OVER ANY ONE LOCATION LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW…EVEN IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. HAVE
GENERALLY FORECAST A TOTAL OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW TODAY FROM
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY TO SCHOHARIE…WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN
ULSTER COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST A DUSTING TO AN
INCH WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR…WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN FULTON
AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD TODAY AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 OVER
THE ADIRONDACKS…AND THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/…
FOR TONIGHT ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WEAKEN TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS…MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS…AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. BY LATE IN THE DAY A WAVE MOVING FROM THE
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA…GENERALLY
SOUTH OF ALBANY. AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY…IT WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT…SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY…ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY.

IT WILL REMAIN COLD. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO THE
20S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND
TEENS…AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MODELS SHOWING DEEP CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM…BUT MUCH
TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR AREA. SO EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW
TAPERING OFF EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION…WHERE LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND BRISK…AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DUE
TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE WILL BE
CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. OTHER THAN A POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING BY JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT…IT SHOULD BE DRY AND CONTINUED COLD.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY…WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A
DRY DAY DEVOID OF ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

HOWEVER…THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING…WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE WAVE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS
OF NOW…SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES BACK OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

OVERALL LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO BIG STORMS APPEAR ON THE
HORIZON FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
12Z SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
KALB/KPSF/KPOU. THE SNOW BANDS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF KGFL…AND
WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH KALB/KPSF GENERALLY BETWEEN 13Z-16Z.
SEPARATE AND MORE DISJOINTED SNOW BANDS WITH ORIGIN OVER LAKE ERIE
MAY MOVE INTO THE KPOU VICINITY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
SNOW BANDS AFFECTING KALB/KPSF…WILL MENTION TEMPOS FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. LESS CONFIDENCE IN BANDS MOVING OVER KPOU…SO HAVE
INDICATED BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP THERE.

LAKE AFFECT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON…LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. OTHERWISE…BRISK CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR TODAY…GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT.

OUTLOOK…
FRI-TUE…MAINLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AND ONLY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES RUNOFF HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE SLOWLY RECEDING.

FOR SPECIFIC RIVER AND LAKE FORECASTS…PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…JPV
HYDROLOGY…GJM

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