January 21, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 212356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK…AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. BITTER
COLD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 625 PM…KENX RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS
THE REGION (GENERALLY UNDER 20 DBZ)…EXCEPT SOME ENHANCED RETURNS
OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX. NOT
MUCH OF THIS PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
AREAS TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY THE AIR SHOULD SATURATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME SNOW…BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT…ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL JUMP TO THE COAST AND TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT. EXPECTING A
COATING TO A FEW INCHES FROM THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL.
A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST…INCLUDING THE BERKSHIRES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE
METARS WITH -SN CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF ALY INCLUDING THE
BERKSHIRES.

THE ALY FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH INTO THE INLAND EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOWS
THAT THE INLAND EXTENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL MAXIMIZE AT JUST UNDER
60 MILES AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY…WITH THE INLAND EXTENT GENERALLY
IN THE 40 TO 50 MILE RANGE MOST OF THE TIME FROM 06Z TONIGHT TO
18Z TUESDAY. THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IS
JUST OVER 60 MILES FROM LAKE ONTARIO…SO DO NOT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EVENT OVER HERKIMER COUNTY DUE TO THE LOW INLAND
EXTENT EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVENT EARLY TONIGHT…AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF HERKIMER COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS EVENING FROM THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY HAVE FORECAST UP TO
AN INCH…AND ONE TO THREE INCHES ELSEWHERE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT IN OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER AS EVEN COLDER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 10 AND AROUND 20
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
AS THE FLOW WEAKENS…SHEAR INCREASES AND THE INVERSION LOWERS…ANY
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NITE WILL DIMINISH AND
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH TO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS. HAVE FORECAST DECREASING CHANCE POPS IN THOSE
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THESE SAME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT REGION. ELSEWHERE…EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS..TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS…AND
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS…TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTH.

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN SOME
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE HWOALY
PRODUCT FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
MOS GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING. THURSDAY
BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THURSDAY
WILL TRANSLATE TO OVERCAST SKIES FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THE STORM WILL BE A QUICK MOVER…THOUGH…WITH THE
SYSTEM OFF OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…GOING WITH ONLY SLGT CHC SNOW SHOWERS
IN LAKE EFFECT AS WIND REGIME WILL BE EITHER TOO NORTHERLY…AS HPC
TENDS TO BE INDICATING…OR BE OF TOO GREAT A VERTICAL SHEAR…AS
PER THE GFS. SUNDAY NIGHT LINES UP A LITTLE BETTER FOR SOME BRIEF
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…THEN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
AHEAD OF A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AT THE OFFSET AS
IT IS POISED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH.

THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD PERIOD…WHICH
WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ON THURSDAY
WILL MODERATE DAILY…TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY
MONDAY. A CLEAR-CUT MODERATION IN THE LOWS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT…WITH LOWS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS FROM AROUND -10 TO -15 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS…TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS…TO THE MID TEENS DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NY TONIGHT…THEN
REDEVELOP EAST OF CAPE COD BY TOMORROW MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT…THEN
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON PRIOR TO 06Z IN THE SNOWFALL.
THE VSBYS AND CIGS MAY TAKE THERE TIME COMING DOWN FROM VFR LEVELS
AT KPOU AND KALB. OUR CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST FOR LOW MVFR/IFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW IS AT KGFL AND KPSF. EXPECT THE CIGS AND VSBYS
TO SLOWLY CLIMB TO HIGH MVFR/VFR LEVELS BTWN 06Z-12Z.
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE TERMINALS WILL RANGE FROM A COATING TO A FEW INCHES.

AFTER DAYBREAK…CIGS/VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR LEVELS…AND THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW. THE CIGS WILL VARY FROM
STRATOCUMULUS NORTH AND WEST OF KALB…TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS
EVENING…THEN INCREASE FROM THW W/NW AT 5-10 KTS AFTER 06Z. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE PM FROM THE W/NW AT 10-16 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
25-30 KT RANGE…ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK…
TUE NGT-THU…VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR -SN.
SAT…VFR…SLIGHT CHC -SHSNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL CAUSE ICE TO FORM ON MOST BODIES
OF WATER. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAMS TO
OCCUR ON SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
WE ARE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR FOR OUR AREA.

NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 21ST THROUGH 24TH:

ALBANY: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
GLENS FALLS: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
POUGHKEEPSIE: HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
BENNINGTON: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS NEAR 10.
PITTSFIELD: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS NEAR 10.

RECORD LOWS FOR ALBANY (DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JANUARY 21ST… -18 DEGREES 1994
JANUARY 22ND… -20 DEGREES 1984
JANUARY 23RD… -20 DEGREES 1970
JANUARY 24TH… -17 DEGREES 1948

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…WASULA
HYDROLOGY…GJM/JPV
CLIMATE…

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