000
FXUS61 KALY 212325
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS…
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK…AS
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. BITTER
COLD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 625 PM…KENX RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS
THE REGION (GENERALLY UNDER 20 DBZ)…EXCEPT SOME ENHANCED RETURNS
OVER THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX. NOT
MUCH OF THIS PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
AREAS TO THE EAST. EVENTUALLY THE AIR SHOULD SATURATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ALL LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME SNOW…BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST
UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT…ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL JUMP TO THE COAST AND TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT. EXPECTING A
COATING TO A FEW INCHES FROM THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL.
A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST…INCLUDING THE BERKSHIRES. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN THE
METARS WITH -SN CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF ALY INCLUDING THE
BERKSHIRES.
THE ALY FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. LOCAL CSTAR
RESEARCH INTO THE INLAND EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOWS
THAT THE INLAND EXTENT WITH THIS EVENT WILL MAXIMIZE AT JUST UNDER
60 MILES AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY…WITH THE INALND EXTENT GENERALLY
IN THE 40 TO 50 MILE RANGE MOST OF THE TIME FROM 06Z TONIGHT TO
18Z TUESDAY. THE WESTERN BORDER OF NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY IS
JUST OVER 60 MILES FROM LAKE ONTARIO…SO DO NOT EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EVENT OVER HERKIMER COUNTY DUE TO THE LOW INLAND
EXTENT EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC EVENT EARLY TONIGHT…AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF HERKIMER COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS EVENING FROM THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. FOR MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY HAVE FORECAST UP TO
AN INCH…AND ONE TO THREE INCHES ELSEWHERE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIOGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT IN OTHER AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER AS EVEN COLDER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD ONLY CLIMB TO BETWEEN 10 AND AROUND 20
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
AS THE FLOW WEAKENS…SHEAR INCREASES AND THE INVERSION LOWERS…ANY
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NITE WILL DIMINISH AND
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH TO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS. HAVE FORECAST DECREASING CHANCE POPS IN THOSE
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THESE SAME AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT REGION. ELSEWHERE…EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VERY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONACKS..TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS…AND
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS…TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTH.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN SOME
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE HWOALY
PRODUCT FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
MOS GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER THINKING. THURSDAY
BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE THURSDAY
WILL TRANSLATE TO OVERCAST SKIES FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. THE STORM WILL BE A QUICK MOVER…THOUGH…WITH THE
SYSTEM OFF OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…GOING WITH ONLY SLGT CHC SNOW SHOWERS
IN LAKE EFFECT AS WIND REGIME WILL BE EITHER TOO NORTHERLY…AS HPC
TENDS TO BE INDICATING…OR BE OF TOO GREAT A VERTICAL SHEAR…AS
PER THE GFS. SUNDAY NIGHT LINES UP A LITTLE BETTER FOR SOME BRIEF
LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS…THEN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
AHEAD OF A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AT THE OFFSET AS
IT IS POISED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY COLD PERIOD…WHICH
WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ON THURSDAY
WILL MODERATE DAILY…TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY
MONDAY. A CLEAR-CUT MODERATION IN THE LOWS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT…WITH LOWS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS FROM AROUND -10 TO -15 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS…TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN
THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS…TO THE MID TEENS DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREAD ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS…BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON…OVERCAST VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FEATURE AND OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL INITIALLY DEGRADE TO MVFR LEVELS
BEFORE DETERIORATING TO IFR LEVELS BY 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 3-7 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY…WIDESPREAD -SN WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO -SHSN BY
06Z. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z…ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT KPOU AT HIGH-END IFR AS SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS INTENSE IN COVERAGE. ALL TAF SITES
WILL GENERALLY ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH UPWARDS TO TWO
INCHES OF NEW SNOW…ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LOWER
END OF THIS SPECTRUM. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK…EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHEST GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK…
TUE NGT-THU…VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR -SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL CAUSE ICE TO FORM ON MOST BODIES
OF WATER. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZE UP ICE JAMS TO
OCCUR ON SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE…
WE ARE AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR FOR OUR AREA.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 21ST THROUGH 24TH:
ALBANY: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
GLENS FALLS: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
POUGHKEEPSIE: HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS.
BENNINGTON: HIGHS AROUND 30. LOWS NEAR 10.
PITTSFIELD: HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS NEAR 10.
RECORD LOWS FOR ALBANY (DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JANUARY 21ST… -18 DEGREES 1994
JANUARY 22ND… -20 DEGREES 1984
JANUARY 23RD… -20 DEGREES 1970
JANUARY 24TH… -17 DEGREES 1948
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…ELH
AVIATION…IRL
HYDROLOGY…GJM/JPV
CLIMATE…IAA
