January 15, 2013 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 151743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS…
A LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND PASS SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
USHERING IN A COLDER AIRMASS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 1230 AM EST…HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY…BUT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH
FURTHER NORTH. SATELLITE PICTURES DO INDICATE A VERY SLOW EROSION
OF THESE CLOUDS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON…JUST IN TIME FOR THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN.
STILL…THERE COULD (AND SHOULD) BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN
BETWEEN…SO WENT WITH PARTLY SUNNY MOST PLACES.

ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS…BUT NOT MUCH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON…IT WILL REMAIN DRY…CLOUDS…WITH A
FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 35-40 IN
THE VALLEYS (STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL)….UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS TIME…EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. HIGHER
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS…MID HUDSON VALLEY…CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TACONICS…THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT. SINCE OUR CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS 4
INCHES HAVE NOT POSTED AN ADVISORY…HOWEVER HAVE HIGHLIGHTED
POSSIBILITY FOR ONE IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH THE SNOW EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DRY EVENING IS EXPECTED
WITH THE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND AN APPROACHING ARCTIC
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY. WILL HAVE A SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY PLUS
WILL HAVE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE MORNING.

ON THURSDAY…TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH LITTLE RECOVERY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
850 HPA TEMPS WILL DROP TO -15 C TO -19 C ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A
SNOW PACK IN PLACE…IT WILL BE A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT WITH SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SRN GREENS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS WELL. MOST AREAS
WILL STAY DRY…WITH THE EXCEPTION JUST BEING SOME UPSLOPE/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

AS QUICK AS THIS COLD SHOT CAME IN…IT WILL BE ON ITS WAY BACK OUT
FOR FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE ALOFT FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THIS…TEMPS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY COLD FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT…WITH 20S FOR MAX TEMPS AND TEENS FOR AT NIGHT.
WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT…IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION…AND THE VEERING WINDS
WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE RESPONSE.

WITH THE REGION IN A WARM SECTOR FOR SATURDAY…MAX TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL…WITH 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION. IT LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TO STAY DRY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN EXACT AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE…BUT A TURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES IS IN
STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE…SOME SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE…ESP IF
THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT…AS IT HAS SOME OF THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING RIGHT OVER OUR AREA.
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE
MID 30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT…WITH TEMPS FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT…WITH THE 00Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOWING 850 HPA
TEMPS DROPPING TO OR BELOW -20 C ACROSS THE REGION. IT/S STILL
UNCLEAR IF THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE
OR BE MORE TRANSIENT AND MOVE THROUGH. IN ANY CASE…TEMPS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS…WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DACKS TO THE LOW
20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE
EVEN COLDER THAN THIS IF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPS FULLY INTO OUR
AREA /AS OPPOSED TO JUST GLANCING THE REGION/. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WELL…WITH
PASSING SNOW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION AND THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME BKN-OVC CIGS OF AROUND 4 KFT FOR
KALB/KGFL THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY SCT OUT TOWARDS MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE…SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH TODAY…ESP FOR AROUND KPOU.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IT WILL STAY DRY ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE IFR RANGE…ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
NEARLY SUNRISE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO REACH KALB/KGFL.

OUTLOOK…
WED AM-WED PM…MVFR/IFR. -SN KALB SOUTH/CHC -SN KGFL.
WED NT-SAT…VFR…NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
WITH A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
RUNOFF WILL NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE CRESTING
AND WILL LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN TO RECEDED. ICE WILL FORM.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM…HWJIV
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY…IAA

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