December 16, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 162154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. A STRONGER AND
WETTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN…WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING AND
FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS…LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED MID WEEK…WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO IMPACT REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MONDAY MORNING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS…THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION…THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY…SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND HELDERBERGS…SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE HAD REPORTS AND CALLS OF ALL
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY: SNOW…SLEET…FREEEZING RAIN AND
RAIN. FORTUNATELY THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
TAKEN DOWN IN PIECES AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO RAIN OR AS THE THREAT FOR THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

TAPER POPS OFF TO LOW CHANCES ON MONDAY AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING…A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING OUT TO SEA
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE/CYCLONIC FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MTNS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING…OTHERWISE…WED WILL FEATURE DECREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AND
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE…TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL…WITH MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WON/T BE TOO COLD FOR WED NIGHT…WITH MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
REGION…AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILD ON THURSDAY WITH 40S THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STORM/S COLD FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP IN PLACE…A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER…SOME
COLDER AIR WILL GET IN PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING…MAINLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. VALLEY AREAS AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION
WILL LIKELY STAY NEARLY ALL RAIN FROM THIS EVENT…ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE VERY END IS STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

THE LATEST 12 UTC ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CYCLONIC FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRI/SAT…ESP
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/GREENS. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW SITUATED
MORE ACROSS SRN CANADA…WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR AREA A LITTLE MORE ON
THE DRIER SIDE…ALTHOUGH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

BOTH MODELS SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR POURING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THIS STORM…WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -14
DEGREES C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL…WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND MINS IN THE LOW 20S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA…LIGHT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND WILL NOT OCCUR THE ENTIRE TIME. WHILE
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN FOR KALB/KPOU…IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OF -SN/-PL/-FZRA FOR KGFL/KPSF.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON VSBYS.
HOWEVER…MVFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES…AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT…FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 7
KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK…
MON PM-TUE NIGHT…MVFR/IFR. RA LIKELY.
WED-THU AM…VFR…NO SIG WX.
THU PM-FRI AM…MVFR/IFR. RA LIKELY POSSIBLY ENDING AS -SN.
FRI PM…VFR/MVFR. -SHSN/-SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
STRONGER AND WETTER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION…MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH AND UP TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AND LOW LYING AREAS. WILL KEEP MENTION ON OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED MID WEEK…THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047-048-051-082>084.
MA…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…IAA
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…FRUGIS
AVIATION…FRUGIS/NAS
HYDROLOGY…IAA

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License