November 27, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 280223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
923 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND TO START THE WEEKEND…SLIDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 920 PM…THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS FINALLY EXITED BERKSHIRE
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION AND CLOUDS COULD
HOLD TOUGH ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WHILE
THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED THE CONCERN IS FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS
AREAS WHICH RECEIVED PRECIPITATION AND HAVE ISSUED A SPS FOR BLACK
ICE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS…WE WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST PLACES FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER…CLOUDS OR
NOT…THESE SHOULD DIP BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE…GENERALLY IN
THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/…
A SERIES OF MAINLY MINOR DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT OUR REGION FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

HOWEVER…HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH…WILL BRIEFLY CONTROL OUR
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP A
LITTLE…HOPEFULLY…ALLOWING FOR A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE MIDDAY.
HOWEVER…THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL WASTE NO TIME WORKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RIGHT AHEAD…ALONG AND ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT…A LAKE
RESPONSE IS AGAIN EXPECTED OFF LAKE ONTARIO…ALTHOUGH THE CSTAR
KVIE PROGRAM DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH PURE LAKE EFFECT AS THE SHEAR
WILL GENERALLY BE TOO GREAT. HOWEVER…THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
LIFT FOR ASCENT…AND THE FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. THERE MIGHT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FOR SMALL ACCUMULATIONS…GENERALLY NO
MORE THAN 1-3 INCHES…MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A FEW SPRINKLES AT WORST.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY…30S HIGHER TERRAIN…WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
POINTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN SOUTHERN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…WILL BE CHILLY AND BRISK. ONCE AGAIN…CLOUDS
COULD BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY MIGHT
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE BLOW OFF BOTH LAKE ONTARIO
AND LAKE ERIE. ANY SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO LOOK TO SHOOT DOWN
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
CATSKILLS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

MOST OTHER AREAS LOOK DRY WITH LOWS AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY…THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS AS THE SURFACE TO 10,000 MEAN FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE
WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS…PROBABLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT…AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN SLIPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
EASTERN CANADA AND MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION DURING FRIDAY. MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES. THE FLOW WILL BE TOO NORTHERLY FOR A FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION . EARLIER IT LOOKED AS IF IT
WOULD BLAST THROUGH…NOW THE FRONT MIGHT GET HUNG UP JUST TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE COLDEST AIR STAYS MAINLY NORTH. STILL CHILLY THOUGH AS
THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW BUT STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TO
30S MOST PLACES…ONLY MID TO UPPER 20S WELL NORTH OF ALBANY.

FRIDAY NIGHT IF WE CLEAR…TEMPERATURES COULD HEAD TO THE COLDEST
READINGS SINCE LAST WINTER. HOWEVER..WE BELIEVE CLOUDS MIGHT HANG
TOUGH SO WENT A FEW POINTS ABOVE GUIDANCE. STILL LOOKING AT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD…TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE
NUMBERS UP NORTH WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING.

IN FACT…A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW COULD BREAK OUT BY
DAYBREAK…ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MIGHT BEGIN TO COMMENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
THE GUIDANCE SUITE (ECMWF/GFS/HPC/GEM) ALL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A
FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE N TIER OF USA AND A SERIES OF SHORT
AMPLITUDE RIDGES AND TROUGHS RIPPLING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND…AND A MUCH SHARPER 500HPA SHORT WV CROSSING LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE AT SFC LARGE HIGH IS ANCHORED FM NEW ENG TO QB WITH
RETURN FLOW ACROSS FCA…AND MILDER AIR MASS SURGING N INTO MIDWEST.
RESULT AT SFC IS SOME SORT OF WMFNT NW-SE ACROSS MID ATLC STATES
INTO GRTLKS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST INCRG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS…AND POPS FM SLIGHT CHC TO CHC FOR -SHRA OR -SHSN. WHILE
HPC DOESN`T SHOW ABOVE CLIMO POPS IT HAS VALUES 25-35PCT. NOT MUCH
CHANGES SAT NT…AND WMFNT SURGES NE SUN.

FOR A TIME SUNDAY FCA IS IN WM SECTOR AND TEMPS WILL TURN
MILDER…BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY PCPN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING CDFNT
WILL SPREAD W-E ACROSS FCA. THE CDFNT WILL SWEEP THRU FCA SUN NT.
IN ITS WAKE MON SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF 500HPA TROF AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND MILDER CONDS.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH TEMPS BLO NORMALS FRI…RISING ABOVE SUN AND
MON. IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY BREAKS OF
CLOUDS..MAINLY S & E OF ALB. QPF DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A FEW
TENTHS TO AT MOST A HALF INCH LATE SUNDAY.

WILL POPULATE WITH GMOS…SLOWING SUNDAYS CDFNT SOME 6-9 HOURS IN
LINE WITH REST OF MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PASSING WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE TAF
SITES…LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS 3-5SM
WITH SOME FOG THIS EVENING AT KALB AND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT
KPSF AND KPOU. ON WEDNESDAY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES WITH BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK…
WED NT…MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHSN.
THU-FRI…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHSN.
SUN…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE HALF AN
INCH OR LESS…MUCH OF THAT COULD FALL AS SNOW…MAINLY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS WHILE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS PRECIPITATION FALLS
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY ON EASTWARD.

THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MAY ALLOW SOME ICE TO START TO FORM NORTH
OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME ICE EFFECTS
COULD BE SEEN ON GAGES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
IN ADDITIONS TO NOVEMBER BEING COOLER THAN NORMAL…IT HAS BEEN
DRY. ONLY 0.85 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECORDED FOR
NOVEMBER 2012 AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

DRIEST NOVEMBERS - ALBANY NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1826
1) 0.40 1908
2) 0.59 1946
3) 0.64 1904
4) 0.85 2012 THROUGH THE 26TH
5) 0.90 1922
6) 0.91 1893
7) 0.91 1978
8) 0.93 1917
9) 0.95 1902
10) 0.97 1882
11) 1.02 1933

DRIEST NOVEMBERS - GLENS FALLS NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948
1) 0.46 2012 THRU THE 26TH
2) 1.16 1976
3) 1.22 1953
4) 1.36 1964
5) 1.48 1981
6) 1.66 1966

DRIEST NOVEMBERS - POUGHKEEPSIE NY - RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948
1) 0.54 2012 THRU THE 26TH
2) 0.67 1976
3) 0.81 1981
4) 1.27 1987
5) 1.28 1981
6) 1.39 1998

PITTSFIELD MA: 0.64 INCHES THROUGH 11/26

BENNINGTON VT: 0.78 INCHES THROUGH 11/26

FOR A CHART OF THE DRIEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD FOR ALBANY VISIT OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM…HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM…SNYDER
AVIATION…11
HYDROLOGY…HWJIV
CLIMATE…

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License