000
FXUS61 KALY 211128
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY…WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION…RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO MORE COMFORTABLE
LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/…
THE LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR AND FIRST FULL DAY OF SUMMER DAWNED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. A FEW
ISOLD PATCHES OF FOG…BUT OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES
MADE WERE TWEEKS TO INCLUDE COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
500HPA RIDGE AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVR RGN ATTM WITH VERY WARM
AIR MASS ALOFT…500HPA TEMP -6C…7000HPA TEMPS +10C AND 850
AROUND 20C. THESE WILL SLOWLY RETREAT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY….
GIVING US ONE MORE VERY HOT DRY DAY. GIVEN THIS TEMP PROFILE NOT
MUCH CHC OF A TSTM…ALTHOUGH LOCAL WRF PRODUCES SOME VERY ISOLD
CONVECTION TWRD SUNSET IN CATSKILLS.
WITH THE 500HPA RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND A CUT OFF LOW BEGINNING
TO DESCEND SWRD FM HUDSON`S BAY…DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO RGN WITH PASSAGE OF WK PREFRONTAL TROF THU NT….AND
A STRONGER CDFNT FRI.
RESULT WILL BE AN INCR THREAT OF CONVECTION WITH TIME…PARTICULARLY
FRI. IN SPITE OF A RATHER STRONG CDFNT THERE`S NOT AS STRONG A
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SUITE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. THROUGH
00UTC SAT 500HPA TEMPS COOL ONLY 3 DEG C…WHILE 700HPA-850 COOL
AROUND 5C. CERTAINLY DESTABILIZATION…BUT NOT ALOT.
STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR TSTMS IS NAM PRODUCES 30-40 POPS TO NW AND
NR 60 SE. NAM BEGINS FRI WITH SUB 1000 J/KG CAPE IN NW FCA AND
2000+ IN SE…WITH HI VALUES PERSISTING IN THE SE…BUT FALLING
TO UNDER 300 NW DURING FRI.
THE GFS SHOWS 1000-2000 J/KG SE FCA THU EVENING DROPPING TO
NIL…AND RECOVERING TO 1000-2000 DURING AFTN FRI CONFINED TO FAR
SE…ELSEWHERE ALMOST NONE.
IN MODEL QPF (USUALLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION) NAM SHOWS SIGNAL
IN S TIER THU NT…AND FIRES ALONG CDFNT DURING LATE MORNING FRI
FM SVT TO W CATSKILLS…PUSHING SE W/TIME. GFS HAS A SLIGHT S TIER
SIGNAL THU NT…AS DOES LOCAL WRF…THEN FIRES TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
W NEW ENG AND S TIER OF FCA FRI.
GEM SHOWS SCT-BKN CONVECTION WITH CDFNT MOVING SE ACROSS FCA
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE.
SPC PUTS SE PORTIONS OF FCA IN SLIGHT RISK FRI…AND ENTIRE AREA IN
GENERAL TSTMS.
BLENDED ALOT OF GUIDANCE BUT THINK THERE IS A CHC FOR STORMS ALONG
S TIER ON PREFRONTAL TROF THUR EVENING…AND ANY TIME WITH CDFNT
FRI. OBVIOUSLY THIS THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL CYCLE…AND
BEST CHANCES REMAIN IN SE PORTIONS OF FCA…WHERE THEY MAY REACH
SEVERE. SO ATTM HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHCS POPS OR BETTER WITH BEST
CHCS TO THE SE. POPS INCR FM NW TO SE…AND IN TIME DURING THE DAY
FRI.
WHILE TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR SO OF WED HIGHS TODAY…TD WILL
DROP FROM AROUND 70 YSTDY INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US OUT OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY BUSINESS. OTHER THAN A FEW PIXELS…IN FAR S
HUD VLY…FCA REMAINS BLO APPARENT TEMP OF 100 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/…
THE RIDGE GETS REPLACED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS REGION SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THREAT
OF SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING ABOUT THE
UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
500HPA AND SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER RGN TDY. VFR CONDS TODAY WITH WINDS
BCMG NW-W 10KTS….GUSTING TO 20KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
WITH WARM TEMPS IN MID LEVELS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY…HOWEVER AND ISOLD TSTM COULD FIRE TWRD EVENING IN
CATSKILLS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST TNGT AS WELL WITH NR CALM WINDS
AND AREAS OF MVFR HZ AND BR LATE AT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK…
FRI…MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT…VFR. KGFL…CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. KALB/KPSF…SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA/-TSRA. SUN…VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT-MON…VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
HOT DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO
NORMAL SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANGE
FRIDAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 80-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN
35-50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT…AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10MPH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE…
ISSUED A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNS) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR JUNE 20TH FROM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO JUST OVER 100
DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE PNS IS
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE.
ALBANY MISSED ITS RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 20TH BY 3 DEGREES WITH A HIGH
OF 94 DEGREES. HOWEVER…BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE SET NEW
RECORDS. GLENS FALLS HIT 95 DEGREES…THE OLD RECORD WAS 94 DEGREES
FROM 1953. POUGHKEEPSIE HIT 96 DEGREES…THE OLD RECORD WAS 95
DEGREES FROM 1953.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY WILL BE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT
LESS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY BUT NO RECORD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES…
ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 21…97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22…95 SET IN 1954
GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 21…92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22…94 SET IN 1983
POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 21…97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22…96 SET IN 1987
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…SNYDER
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER…SNYDER
HYDROLOGY…SNYDER
CLIMATE…IAA
000
FXUS61 KALY 220205
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY…PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS…ALTHOUGH A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 730 PM EDT…A CONVECTIVE CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NY AND TRACKING TOWARD THE CATSKILLS. OUR 00Z SOUNDING WAS
QUITE UNSTABLE…BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING…THESE
PARCELS ARE NOT BECOMING ROOTED FROM THE SURFACE. H2O VAPOR LOOP
DOES REVEAL A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER WV AND TRACKING NORTHEAST.
LATEST RUC/HRRR POINT TO THIS WAVE WEAKENING AND TRACKING OVER NJ
OVERNIGHT. SO FOR THIS UPDATE…KEPT THE POPS JUST BELOW SLIGHT
CHANCE AND ADJUSTED HOURLY VALUES ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE…EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. MORE
CLOUDS…AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR NW AREAS AND MID
HUDSON VALLEY/CATSKILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK…AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOR MIN TEMPS…GENERALLY SIDED ABOVE THE COOLER MAV
MOS…GENERALLY THINKING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S MIXING. THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE RATHER WARM OVERNIGHT
MINS…FALLING TO 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY REGIONS…AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
FRIDAY…THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS…THEN DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS…WITH A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
BOUNDARY…MOST NOTICEABLE IN NUMERICAL MODELS AROUND 850 HPA WITH
TEMPS…THETA E AND SHOWALTER INDICES…MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THE FORMER BOUNDARY…AND WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING…HAVE INDICATED HIGH CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS GENERALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
AREAS TO THE S AND E…WITH ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE FOR NORTHERN
AREAS…ESP THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE
EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY…WITH INCREASING
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPC
HAS KEPT SLIGHT CHC FOR SEVERE JUST S/E OF CWA. HOWEVER…CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT…WITH MAIN ATTRIBUTES BEING LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS. WE HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MAV MOS FOR MAX TEMPS…WITH 85-90 ACROSS MOST VALLEY
REGIONS…AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN…COOLEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH FOR MOST AREAS…EXCEPT FOR LOWERING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NW AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRI NT…THE 12Z NAM AND GEM SUGGEST THE 850 MB FRONT SLOWS DOWN
UPON EDGING SE INTO THE BERKSHIRES…MID HUDSON VALLEY…NW CT AND
SE CATSKILLS IN THE EVENING. THEREFORE…TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY…HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT IN THESE REGIONS…THEN TAPERING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR
MINS…HAVE SIDED WITH BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS…WITH MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS…AND LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS. DEPENDING
ON WHERE RAIN OCCURS EARLIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING…SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER AT NIGHT.
SAT…FRONT EDGES E OF REGION. HOWEVER…UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE REACHES AROUND -15 C…WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAPES REACHING 1000 J/KG OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. GIVEN THAT SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE A BIT GREATER ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS…WILL INDICATE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS…TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS…AND WILL KEEP OUT
POPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL…AND MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
CAPPING/CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP…SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. FOR MAX
TEMPS…SIDED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS…WITH 80-85 IN MOST
VALLEYS…EXCEPT FOR MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY…WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SAT NT…OTHER THAN ANY RESIDUAL ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS…EXCEPT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES…WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT QUIET WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH
SOME SUNSHINE…FOLLOWING BY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 85 VALLEY LOCATIONS…75 TO 80 HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ALL THE EXTENDED MODELS FORECAST AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW TO
DIVE SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND CANADA. STRONG ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LOW PRESSURE…COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ZONE…LOOKS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT COOLS DOWN BY MONDAY. A
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER OUR REGION…CREATING A POTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL PWATS VALUES WELL
OVER AN INCH ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE
RAIN TO BE HEAVY…ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
WHILE THE SURFACE FEATURE LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY…THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL
STALL OVER OUR REGION OR JUST NORTH. H500 TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COOL
TO UNDER -20C…WHILE H850 TEMPERATURES FALL TO ABOUT +6C. BOTH
VALUES ARE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WHILE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL NOT BE ANY MORE SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE…AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR NOW…WILL JUST USE DIURNAL TRENDS TO REFLECT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION…LOWER AT NIGHT (SLIGHT)…HIGHER IN THE DAY
(CHANCE). THIS FAR OUT…IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME ANY SHORT WAVES
THAT MIGHT ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW WHICH WOULD YIELD MORE
SPECIFIC TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A COLD ATMOSPHERE ALOFT…SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBILITY…EVEN
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY THUNDER.
DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE 70S…60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S…COOLING TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID
50S SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
BR/HZ DEVELOPMENT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VIS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ANY BR/HZ SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z FRIDAY. AFTER THAT…WE ARE
EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH MIDDAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES…THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE BUT THE
THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW THROUGH MIDDAY AT OUR TAF SITES SO DID NOT
MENTION THEM IN OUR TAFS. THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE SOUTH OF
I90.
PLEASE REFER BACK TO OUR DISCUSSION/TAF FORECAST IF YOU ARE FLYING
LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK…
SAT…VFR. CHC TSRA/SHRA MAINLY KGFL.
SUN…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT-TUE…VFR. CIG. CHC SUB-VFR CHC RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER…
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
FRIDAY…PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER INTO THE 85-100 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT…WITH AREAS OF DEW FORMATION POSSIBLE. THE RH WILL THEN
FALL TO 40-50 PERCENT IN VALLEYS…AND 50-60 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON…BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100
PERCENT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT…THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION…AND STRONGER IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY…
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PONDING OF WATER POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING…POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS…KL
NEAR TERM…BGM/KL
SHORT TERM…KL
LONG TERM…HWJIV
AVIATION…BGM/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER…KL
HYDROLOGY…KL
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