June 20, 2012 6AM Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 200939
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
539 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD AS THE HOTTEST AIR MASS
SINCE LAST SUMMER IS OVER THE REGION. FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION…RETURNING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO
MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/…
THE HEAT IS ON. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV HAS EXITED RGN…ALONG WITH
ITS PATCHY MID/HI CLOUDS. 500HPA RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

TODAY 590+ DM 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN TIER AND HTS ARE
RISING ACROSS RGN. WK CDFNT LIES IN THE OTTAWA VLY AND WHILE IT
WILL NEVER REACH REGION…IN COMBINATION WITH GRADIENT ALONG N
TIER OF SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN 10-15KT NW-W WINDS OVR RGN. WITH
H850 TEMPS 20-21C…THIS FLOW WILL ADD TO HEAT WITH DOWN SLOPING.

WITH HIGHEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR TODAY…AIR MASS MAY MIX TO
750HPA BASED ON MDL SOUNDINGS. TEMPS IN THE 90S ARE A GOOD BET
AND EXPECT A FEW DEGREES ABV GUID VALUES DUE TO COMPRESSION AND
DEPTH OF MIXING. WITH MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ABV GUID AND TD IN
UPPER 60S TO L70S MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD ZONES TO HEAT ADVISORIES
AND UPGRADE TO HEAT WARNINGS IN PTNS OF MID HUD VLY. SEE ZONES
LISTED BELOW.

CONVECTION SHOULDN`T BE A FACTOR TODAY…WHILE CAPES WILL REACH
3000-5000 J/KG THIS AFTN…THE AIR MASS WILL BE CAPPED…AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE LID ON
TIGHT. SPC PLACED EASTERN AREAS IN SEE TEXT…BASED MOSTLY ON GFS
HINTING AT CONVECTION. HWVR MDL SNDS FROM GFS ARE CAPPED. IF SOME
ISOLD TSTM BREAKS THROUGH TDY…ITS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE EXPLOSIVE
TO SAY THE LEAST…BUT AGAIN VERY UNLIKELY.

500HPA RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOUTH TNGT…BUT AT SFC WILL JUST
BE A MUGGY NIGHT…FEELING MORE LIKE MARYLAND THAN NYS AS TEMPS
FALL SLOWLY INTO 70S LATE AT NIGHT…TD ONLY FALL TO 60S.

THU 500HPA RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE COAST. WHILE GUID MAX
TEMPS ARE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TDYS…WITH HIGHS IN
90S…MAYBE A 100 HERE OR THERE MID HUDSON VLY…TD DO RETREAT
INTO THE 60S. SO HEAT FLAGS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN ADVISORY CAT THU.
THIS WILL BE REFINED LATER TDY.

MDL SUITE PRODUCES LITTLE CAPE THU EXCEPT ALONG S TIER LATE IN THE
DAY. ALONG WITH CAPPING IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND MAINLY DRY. GFS SUG
SOME CONVECTION JUST S OF FCA AT END OF PD…BUT ALL POPS ARE SUB
10.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHTS FALLS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH MOVING IN. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY…HOWEVER ON FRIDAY DAYTIME HEATING WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SO THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE HOT AND CONTINUED HUMID ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY…HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
AS OPPRESSIVE AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER HUDSON
BAY AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/…
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
OVER OR DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER…THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES AND EACH OTHER AS HOW
THIS WILL EVOLVE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. LOOKING AT
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
BUILDING RIDGE AT 500HPA DOMINATES THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
FCA. REMNANTS OF `RIDGE ROLLER` LEFT SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER
FCA OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FOG FROM FORMING
THIS MORNING. WITH SUN ALREADY UP WHAT FOG THATS AROUND WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE…OTRW VFR CONDS WILL PERSIS INTO TONIGHT.
LATE TNGT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS MAY FORM WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBY.

WINDS WILL BE LT THIS MORNING…INCRG TO W 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS IN E-W VLYS THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK…
THU…VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRI…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT…VFR
SUN…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 90-100 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS
WITH SOME DEW. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MODERATE RANGE BETWEEN 35-45
PERCENT MOST PLACES EACH AFTERNOON. A LIGHT WIND AT NIGHT UNDER 5
MPH…BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH DURING THE DAYTIME THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOONS.

A COLD FRONT WITH BRING SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
SUMMER BEGINS AT 7:09 PM EDT TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS…

ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 20…97 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21…97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22…95 SET IN 1954

GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 20…94 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21…92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22…94 SET IN 1983

POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 20…95 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21…97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22…96 SET IN 1987

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY…HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ038>041-043-048>050-052>054-061-066-083-084.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ059-060-063>065.
MA…HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT…HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…SNYDER
NEAR TERM…SNYDER
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…IAA
AVIATION…SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER…SNYDER
HYDROLOGY…SNYDER
CLIMATE…IAA

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