June 19, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 191817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT USHERING
IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 130 PM…OUR RADAR INDICATED NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ANY CU
TO OUR WEST WAS LACKLUSTER. INSTABILITY WAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY…ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
MODEST…ONLY ABOUT 5.0/C.

BASED ON TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT MOST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY…HAVE DECIDED TO
REMOVE ANY CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

WE ARE WATCHING YET ANOTHER MCS IN MICHIGAN. THIS ONE LOOKS TO MOVE
JUST TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS EVENING…BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS THIS EVENING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORM
OF THIS MCS/MCV GETTING INTO OUR REGION.

HAD TO CUT BACK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE IN THE HOURLY GRIDS.
HOWEVER…IT NOW APPEARS THE WARM FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE HUDSON
VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE BEGUN TO
REALLY CLIMB.

LEFT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY AS THEY WERE…BUT LOWERED
IN A FEW SPOTS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR INCREASING
HUMIDITY…AND THOSE TEMPERATURES RISING WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
80.

NOTE…IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW FOR OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS AS HEAT INDICES LOOK REACH AROUND
100 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/…
HOT AND HUMID WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER BUILDS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CRESTING OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARM TO AROUND 20C. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION
FOR LOCAL RECORD HIGHS.

THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S UP TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES ARE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WITH INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR CONVECTION…NOT EXPECTING ANY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER REGION AND HAVE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. THURSDAY IS
ALSO LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY TIME WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME WHEN FRONT AND DYNAMICS
APPROACH. HEIGHTS WILL TO FALL HOWEVER THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST THURSDAY NIGHT SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN/
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AS WELL…ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINT TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH…WITH VALUES 10-16 DEGREES C. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A
WARM DAY…ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS WED/THURS. HIGHS MID 80S
VALLEYS WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FINALLY…THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST…AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT…WITH 50S FOR MIN TEMPS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA…WITH JUST
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY.

00Z EURO AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SUNDAY. GFS BRINGS CLOUDS AND
PRECIP INTO THE AREA FASTER. MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR AT H500 AND
EURO IS ACTUALLY STRONGER WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE…BUT EURO HAS
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SKIRTING OUR AREA. LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT PATHS FOR H500 LOW. 00Z GFS HAS UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND STALLING WHILE 00Z EURO TAKE UPPER
LOW SOUTHWARD TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE GFS HAS A COOL NORTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW WHILE THE EURO HAS A COASTAL WAVE AND A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEREAFTER…AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPMENTS.

WARM FRONT WAS TRACKING TOWARD THE I81 CORRIDOR AS THE LEADING EDGE
OF SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER…SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT…A MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OCCURS…DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BECOME QUITE LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG. KPSF/KGFL/KPOU ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH A NEAR
SOLID MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR KALB. THIS WILL BE COVERED IN MAINLY
TEMPO GROUPS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
HAZE.

THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS…BECOMING LIGHT AN
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK…
WED PM-NT…MAINLY VFR. CHC LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR DUE TO
FOG AND/OR STRATUS.
THU…MAINLY VFR. SCHC -SHRA/-TSRA LATE.
FRI…MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA KALB/KPOU/KPSF AND SCHC AT KGFL.
SAT…VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN…MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A MORE
SEASONABLE AIRMASS.

MINIMUMS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S WITH A RECOVERY TO 95 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. MINIMUMS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S WITH A RECOVERY TO 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS…

ALBANY NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
JUNE 19…94 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20…97 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21…97 SET IN 1938
JUNE 22…95 SET IN 1954

GLENS FALLS NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1944)
JUNE 19…97 SET IN 1995
JUNE 20…94 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21…92 SET IN 1988
JUNE 22…94 SET IN 1983

POUGHKEEPSIE NY (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
JUNE 19…91 SET IN 1957
JUNE 20…95 SET IN 1953
JUNE 21…97 SET IN 1949
JUNE 22…96 SET IN 1987

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA
NEAR TERM…HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM…IAA
LONG TERM…SND
AVIATION…BGM
FIRE WEATHER…IAA
HYDROLOGY…IAA
CLIMATE…

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