May 28, 2012 Forecast Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY…PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY…A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 400 AM EDT…PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME FOG WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. EXPECT
TEMPS TO ONLY FALL ANOTHER FEW DEGREES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ALIGNED FROM THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND FORM LINES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.
H7 STEERING WINDS WOULD HAVE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING AT 30 TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION CELLS MAY BE STRENGTHENED BY CHANNELED FLOW DOWN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. MLMUCAPES ARE ALREADY 1500-2500 J/KG BY 18Z
WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 6.5 C/KM TO OVER 7.5 C/KM. IN
ADDITION 0-6KM BULK SHEAR RISE TO 40-50 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SUPERCELLS AS 0-3 KM HELICITY
VALUES RISE TO 300-400 M2/S2 ACRS NRN PTN OF FA. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY
TO BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 90 SOUTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/…
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

MUCH OF THE FA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR OLD FORGE AND
BRATTLEBORO AT 00Z TO NORTHEAST VERMONT AND SOUTHEAST MAINE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 7 TO 8 C/KM. IN ADDITION 0-3 KM HELICITIES REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN
200 AND 400 M2/S2 ACRS NE THIRD OF FA. THUS SUPERCELLS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE WBZ HEIGHTS START TO DROP TO BTWN 8 AND 10 KFT SO
LARGE HAIL ALSO BECOMES MORE OF A THREAT.

MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE UPPER
TROUGH. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A VERY HUMID AIRMASS
REMAINING IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSES RATES LESSEN TO 6
TO 6.5 C/KM…MLMUCAPES REMAIN VERY HIGHS WITH UP TO 4000 J/KG
PSBL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS AS
UPPER JET ENDS UP PUTTING FA IN EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 100+ KT JET MAX OVER SRN ONTARIO. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE ADDED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD TO THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER
WHICH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/…
FOR MOST FIELDS…POPULATED GRIDDED DATABASE WITH 50/50 BLEND OF 18Z
HPC GUIDANCE AND GMOS.

THU-THU NT…AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL COLD POOL
SHOULD PASS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THIS COMBINATION OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY…AND SOME FORCING…ALONG WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC
LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS…WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER
THE TROUGH PASSAGE…A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CLEARING SKIES LATE THU INTO THU NT. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPS…WITH MAXES REACHING 70-75 IN VALLEYS…AND 60S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS…WITH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS MOST LIKELY ONLY REACHING THE 50S. FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS…EXPECT 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS…AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FRI-SUN…MOST 00Z/28 DETERMINISTIC MODELS…AS WELL AS THE
GEFS…INDICATE A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
TRACKING TOWARD THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD…WITH SOME HINTS OF A SECONDARY SFC WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
E OF THE APPALACHIANS…ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD…ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING. IT
APPEARS…BASED ON OVERALL CONSENSUS…THAT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS SHOULD BE FRI NT OR SAT. WILL INDICATE
CHC POPS BY LATE FRI…AND HIGH CHC FRI NT INTO SAT…TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAXES SHOULD BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN…WITH
MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS…AND 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE
TO…OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER…WITH
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS…WITH SOME 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT…PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS…MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THROUGH SUNRISE…HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM W TO E AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH 08Z…WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL 12Z. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB. AT KGFL…AS THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD DECREASES…A FEW BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE…MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

AT KPSF…SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH
DAYBREAK…LEADING TO MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 09Z. AT
KPOU…HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TONIGHT…COMBINED WITH SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR IFR VSBYS/CIGS TO
DEVELOP…MAINLY AFTER 08Z.

SUNRISE THROUGH 06Z/TUE…AFTER ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG LIFT…EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE…ESP AFTER 20Z. ANY TSTMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION…INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD
TO MVFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLE CIGS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO S BY LATE MORNING…AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY S AT LESS THAN 8 KT
MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER…AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY TSTMS.

KPOU ASOS OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT COME INTO THE NWS AWIPS SYSTEM SINCE
26/2353Z…SO HAVE INCLUDED AMD NOT SKED IN THE KPOU TAF.

MON NT…VFR/MVFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA. IFR POSSIBLE.
TUE…MVFR. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE.
WED…IMPROVING TO VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA IN THE MRNG.
THU…VFR…NO SIG WX.
FRI…VFR/MVFR…CHC SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY…PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY…A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY…PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY…A WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION PWATS RISE TO BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS AND SOME BACKBUILDING CELLS. WHILE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD…ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS MAY HAVE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH
OCCURRED SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME…IN THIS
CASE IT WAS IN JUST OVER AND HOUR. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING WOULD
BE THE MAJOR CONCERN…BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF OCCURRENCE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.EQUIPMENT…
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS FROM ALBANY FOR 00Z/MONDAY AND 12Z/MONDAY. THE
SIGNAL PROCESSING SYSTEM FAILED AND PARTS ARE ON EMERGENCY ORDER. WE
HOPE TO HAVE A 00Z/TUESDAY UPPER AIR FLIGHT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…IAA/11
NEAR TERM…11
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…KL
AVIATION…KL
FIRE WEATHER…11
HYDROLOGY…11
EQUIPMENT…

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

…BERYL GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND…WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS EVEN AS THE WINDS DECREASE…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION


LOCATION…30.3N 82.0W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI…135 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS


CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

  • FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER GEORGIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK


AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. BERYL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY…AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM
…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE JACKSONVILLE
NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH…
54 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH…67 KM/H. A WIND GUST OF 44
MPH…70 KM/H…WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT NAVAL STATION MAYPORT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY…AND WILL ALSO SPREAD INLAND NEAR THE
CENTER OF BERYL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
TODAY…PARTICULARLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA…2 TO 4 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION…WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF…DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS…INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS…ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL…BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES…FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

NEXT ADVISORY


NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS




000
WTNT42 KNHC 280846
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL…AS INDICATED BY DECREASING
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES…ESPECIALLY OVER
LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY…WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND…BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR…ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS…WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED
WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07…A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5…AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS…AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
12H 28/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 31.9N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 32.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 35.7N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 01/0600Z 38.5N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

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