April 16, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 162328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS…AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS EVENING.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE…A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/…
AS OF 715 PM EDT… A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION…WITH A SFC PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN ADVANCE
OF IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
MOVING ACROSS WRN NY…NRN NY AND ERN LAKE ONTARIO…WITH NO CG
LTG STRIKES REPORTED AT THIS TIME. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE…AND INSTABILITY ARE INHIBITING STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IN THE HOURLIES FOR THE WRN DACKS…AND
THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY…AND REDUCED ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
SLIGHT CHC VALUES. CLOUD COVER WAS RETOOLED BASED ON THE SATELLITE
TRENDS TOO. OVERALL…ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM/HRRR…WE ARE
EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO COMPLETELY FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT…AS THERE IS A STRONG W/SW LLJ
OF 35-50 KTS ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT…AS IT CROSSES
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.

EXPECT LOWS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID
50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/…
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR WINDS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS FROST/FREEZE IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED MOHAWK VALLEY…HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN
CONNECTICUT. AREAS OF FROST AND WIDESPREAD FROST HAVE BEEN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 33 TO 36 DEGREES AND 32 DEGREES OR BELOW RESPECTIVELY.

HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST…LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S…HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S…LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S…AND HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/…
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS TO A WET AND UNSETTLED STRETCH…WHICH
IS MORE TYPICAL OF APRIL…AS A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST OR TN VALLEY COULD BRING A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST…AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF THE NJ AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DESCENDS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WAVE APPROACHES ON
THE GFS/ECMWF FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING…BUT
THE BETTER LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FCST AREA OVER SE CANADA. WE GRADUALLY BROUGHT SLIGHT AND LOW
CHC POPS IN FOR THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI. HPC BRINGS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION…AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND BY
FRIDAY. WE WENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS OVER THE NRN
ZONES…THOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD KEEP IT DRY TO CLOSE THE WEEK WITH
SOME MID AND UPPER RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST BLOCKING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S…AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE U60S TO L70S MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS…AND
U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
LOOK ONLY TO LAST ONE MORE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/HPC GRAPHICS ALL
INDICATE A DEVELOPING NEUTRAL TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. INITIALLY WEAK RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ON
THE ERN SIDE OF TROUGH…AND THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL LIFT N/NE THAT
MAY BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER…THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST/TN VALLEY. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF /WHICH
IS FURTHER EAST/. LATE SATURDAY PM…A STRATIFORM RAINFALL MAY MOVE
INTO THE REGION…THOUGH WE CHANGED THE WX TYPE FROM SHOWERS FRI
NIGHT…TO RAIN ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…WET AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
DOMINATE…AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND THE
H500 CUTOFF. THE GFS IS FURTHER INLAND AND WEST WITH THE MAIN SFC
CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND…WHERE THE ECMWF AND HPC
GUIDANCE HAVE A COASTAL WAVE LIFTING N/NE FROM THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY WITH A DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
IT. STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION AND QG LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND
THE COASTAL CYCLONE COULD BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL. WE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
MONDAY…UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THIS WIDESPREAD PCPN
POTENTIAL. THIS COULD BE THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL THE FCST
AREA NEEDS AFTER THE PERSISTENT DRY SPELL OVER THE PAST MONTH OR
SO. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE DAMP AIR MASS.

MONDAY…A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITH THE STACKED CYCLONE
OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THE FCST
AREA COULD GET INTO A DRY SLOT FOR PART OF THE DAY. HOWEVER…WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE CUT-OFF SCT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

OVERALL…PCPN COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL…AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL JUST
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. SKIES WILL
MAINLY BE FEW-SCT040-050 SCT-BKN250 WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE END OF TONIGHT AND THEN SCT250 OR SKC FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE.

SOUTH WINDS AT 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS…AND THEN
INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS.

.OUTLOOK…
TUE NGT-THU NGT…MAINLY VFR…NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT…CHC VFR/MVFR -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR THE EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY…SCHOHARIE VALLEY…GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT…SARATOGA
REGION…MID HUDSON VALLEY…EASTERN CATSKILLS…TACONICS…WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS…AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS…AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS EVENING.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE…A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT…DROP
TO 15 TO 35 PERCENT ON TUESDAY…RECOVER TO 65 TO 100 PERCENT
TUESDAY NIGHT…AND DROP TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH TONIGHT…WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ON TUESDAY DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT…AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FORECAST
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING RANGES FROM NEAR ZERO OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN THE REGION LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE…
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WHEN IT REACHED 91 DEGREES AT 440 PM EDT. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 89 DEGREES SET IN 2002 AND ALSO MARKS EARLIEST
90 DEGREE TEMPERATURE FOR ALBANY. PREVIOUSLY THE EARLIEST 90
DEGREE TEMPERATURE READING WAS APRIL 17TH OF 2002 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 91 DEGREES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY…RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ039>041-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ039>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA…RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…11/NAS
NEAR TERM…11/WASULA
SHORT TERM…11
LONG TERM…WASULA
AVIATION…11
FIRE WEATHER…11
HYDROLOGY…SND
CLIMATE…SND/11

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