April 15, 2012 Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 151742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
REGION TODAY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH SUMMER LIKE WARMTH ON MONDAY…BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
AS OF 130 PM EDT…MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA WITH STILL SOME SUN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOW
TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS…IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT…AND FORMER MCS…CONTINUES TO MOVE E
FROM CENTRAL NY. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST IN
MOST AREAS. THEREFORE HAVE POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION S AND W…WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS REMAINING TO THE N AND E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
SYSTEM THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE SEVERE WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL
U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND AFFECT OUR REGION
WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN…
OUR REGION SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARMING CONSIDERABLY AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY IF NOT
MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE BREEZY AS WELL…SO WITH GOOD
MIXING…TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 80S…MAYBE UPPER 80S
IN SOME CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOME
DISAGREEMENTS IN GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS
TUESDAY…BUT BASED ON THE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLOW TO BUILD EAST AND OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY…SIDING ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE TUESDAY WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND POSSIBLE BREEZY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S…SOME 50S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME MORE CLEARING. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT…AFTER THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH…SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER TO MID
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGH DRIFTS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT…AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY…WITH A THREAT OF
SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
CENTER WILL LIKELY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS
WAKE FOR FRIDAY WITH SIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF INDICATING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OR CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOW THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EVOLVES WITH PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
DEPENDING ON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
FOR FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY WAVE OR WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE EXPECTED PATTERN AT
LEAST WARRANTS MENTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
SCT-BKN VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION…
ALONG WITH A POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED POP-UP -SHRA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MAINLY BKN-OVC CI OR CS SHOULD REMAIN…WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD BE SOME
MVFR FOG AT THE AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT…BUT THIS WILL BE GONE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT…PICKING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIXING. WINDS AT
THE 2000-FOOT LEVEL WILL BE GENERALLY 25 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS…EVEN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON…BUT THEY WILL BECOME GUSTY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK…
MON AFTN-MON NGT…VFR. BREEZY. CHC -SHRA KGFL AND KALB.
TUE-THU…MAINLY VFR…NO SIG WX.
THU NGT…MAINLY VFR…CHC -SHRA.
FRI…VFR…NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY…

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE
REGION TODAY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH SUMMER LIKE WARMTH ON MONDAY…BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR
REGION WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY…MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD FALL TO
RANGES THAT WOULD CAUSE CONCERN…WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES AROUND TO
JUST BELOW 30 PERCENT.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS AND LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS MONDAY SHOULD BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

GENERALLY EXPECT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…NONE.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…NAS
NEAR TERM…KL/11/NAS
SHORT TERM…NAS
LONG TERM…JPV
AVIATION…ELH
FIRE WEATHER…NAS
HYDROLOGY…11

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