April 8, 2012 Forcast Discussion

00
FXUS61 KALY 082105
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS…
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
STRETCH FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING MUCH OF THE
WEEK…BRINGING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
AS OF 415 PM…MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES…AND ANOTHER BAND OF
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE TWO CLOUD AREAS WILL
TEND TO MOVE TOWARDS EACH OTHER TONIGHT AND MERGE. RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AS THESE TWO AREAS OF MOISTURE MERGE. INITIALLY
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND JUST TO EITHER SIDE OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S…WHICH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR.

AFTER A BRIEF DROPOFF IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING…WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC…CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION TO INTENSIFY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/…
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON MONDAY AND
EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTH AND LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED PCPN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER..AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTH…MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALSO…WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR ALL
AREAS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDY ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOT BECOME
THAT STRONG AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT…BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
BREEZY. GENERALLY EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH FOR TUESDAY.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S MOST AREAS…BUT 55
TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN
THE 40S TO MID 50S…AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO START OUT UNSETTLED WITH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT STILL LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE A GREAT DEAL OF STEADY OR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS…THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM OVER
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE…LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE THURSDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND
THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA ON SATURDAY…THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY…UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
ON FRIDAY…AND MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. LOWS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
RETROGRADING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THE AIRPORTS WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER…
ANY CIGS WILL BE VFR…THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT…RESULTING IN AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS. KALB AND KGFL
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOW TO HAVE SOME POST-FRONTAL -SHRA IN
THE VICINITY ON MONDAY.

W-NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTN…ALTHOUGH KPOU
HAS YET TO COMPLETELY MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL LET UP SOMEWHAT BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT BRINGS IN EVEN STRONGER AND GUSTIER WESTERLY WINDS…
PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. EXPECTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS. SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT LULL PERIOD…WITH 2000-FOOT LEVEL WINDS AS
HIGH AS 45 KTS. THIS WILL BE GONE WITH THE COLD FROPA.

.OUTLOOK…
MON…VFR. MVFR POSS WITH CHC -SHRA AT KALB AND KGFL. WINDY.
MON NIGHT…VFR…NO SIG WX.
TUE-THU AFTN…VFR/MVFR. CHC DAYTIME -SHRA AND NGT -SHRA/-SHSN.
THU EVE-FRI…VFR…NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER…
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THROUGH 800 PM TODAY…

FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MONDAY FOR
ULSTER…DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING…RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO
35 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH…
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 65 AND 90 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING…
ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS EVENING…THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN FROM THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE.

FOR MOST OF THE REGION…EXPECT RH VALUES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER…WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.

THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH CLOUD COVER OR MOISTURE ACROSS ULSTER…
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES…AND EXPECT RH VALUES IN THOSE
LOCATIONS TO DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS ALSO
REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH. SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY…
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM
RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES…INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS…PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
CT…NONE.
NY…RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>040-
047-048-051-058-063.
MA…NONE.
VT…NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS…GJM
NEAR TERM…GJM
SHORT TERM…GJM
LONG TERM…11
AVIATION…ELH
FIRE WEATHER…GJM
HYDROLOGY…GJM

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License